$587.54K
1
9
$587.54K
1
9
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
More markets for the Premier League game, scheduled for February 28 at 10:00 AM ET.
Prediction markets currently give Brentford FC a small edge to win their Premier League match against Burnley FC on February 28, 2026. The market implies a roughly 55% probability, which is like saying Brentford has a slightly better than even chance. It’s essentially viewed as a coin flip, but one where the coin is weighted just a bit in Brentford’s favor. With nearly $2 million wagered, this reflects a high level of public interest and a genuine collective judgment on the game's most likely outcome.
The close odds reflect the competitive nature of the Premier League and the specific circumstances of these two clubs. First, Brentford has built a reputation in recent years as a well-organized, difficult opponent for any team, often performing strongly against sides around them in the table. Second, the match will be played at Brentford's home ground, Gtech Community Stadium, where home advantage typically adds a few percentage points to a team's chances. Finally, the timing of the match late in the 2025/26 season could be a factor. If either team is fighting to avoid relegation or secure a mid-table finish, the pressure and form in the final months of the campaign can heavily influence a single game's result.
The main event is the match itself on Saturday, February 28, 2026. In the days leading up to it, team news will be critical. The official announcement of starting lineups, typically one hour before kickoff, often causes the final market moves. Key updates to watch for include injury reports for star players or last-minute squad decisions by the managers. Any significant news about player availability in the week before the match could shift the odds meaningfully.
For major sporting events like Premier League football, prediction markets have a solid track record. They often perform as well as or better than expert pundits and statistical models because they aggregate many informed opinions in real time. However, their reliability has limits. A single moment of individual brilliance, a controversial refereeing decision, or simply bad luck can decide a football match, making any prediction uncertain. The 55% probability for Brentford is a consensus on the most likely outcome, but it still acknowledges a very real 45% chance that Burnley wins or the match ends in a draw.
The prediction market currently prices a Brentford win at 55%. This indicates a slight edge for the away side, translating to an implied probability just over a coin flip. A Burnley win trades at 30%, while a draw sits at 15%. With $1.9 million in total volume, this is a highly liquid market, suggesting the odds are shaped by significant informed capital rather than casual speculation. The 55% price means the consensus expects a close, low-scoring match typical of a Premier League relegation scrap, where a single goal often decides the outcome.
Two primary factors explain Brentford's favoritism. First, the historical and table context is critical. As of late February 2026, both teams are likely entrenched in a battle against relegation. Brentford's squad, built around a data-driven model, typically possesses more proven Premier League quality and tactical structure than a Burnley side that may have been recently promoted. Second, home advantage at Turf Moor is less decisive than in past eras. Burnley's traditional physical style has been increasingly neutralized by technically superior opponents, and Brentford’s set-piece efficiency and counter-attacking threat are well-suited to exploit this.
The immediate catalyst is team news, particularly regarding key attackers. An injury to Brentford’s primary goal threat would likely cause their win probability to drop toward 50% or below. Conversely, a confirmed absence for Burnley’s main defensive organizer could push Brentford’s price toward 60%. Weather conditions on matchday also matter; a windy, rainy day at Turf Moor traditionally favors Burnley’s direct approach and could compress the odds, increasing the draw's probability. Late betting market moves from traditional sportsbooks often flow into prediction markets minutes before kickoff, causing final volatility.
This market is trading exclusively on Polymarket. The high volume and concentrated liquidity there provide a clear consensus. The absence of a comparable market on Kalshi eliminates arbitrage opportunities but also means the 55% price is the singular market-derived forecast. This concentration increases confidence that the price efficiently reflects all available public information about team form, tactics, and injuries ahead of this specific fixture.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic focuses on specialized betting markets for the Premier League football match between Burnley FC and Brentford FC, scheduled for February 28 at 10:00 AM Eastern Time. Unlike standard win-draw-win markets, 'more markets' encompass a wide array of specific in-game occurrences that bettors can predict. These include the exact scoreline, the timing of the first goal, whether both teams will score, the total number of corners, individual player actions like shots on target or assists, and many other granular events. The availability and pricing of these markets are determined by sportsbooks and prediction platforms, reflecting real-time assessments of probability based on team form, player availability, and tactical setups. Interest in these markets has grown significantly as football analytics have become more sophisticated, allowing fans and bettors to engage with matches beyond the simple outcome. The match itself is a Premier League fixture, the top division of English football, where every point carries significant weight in the battle for European qualification, financial rewards, and avoiding relegation. Burnley, a club with a historic presence in English football, is often seen as a traditional, physically robust team, while Brentford represents a newer, data-driven approach to club management and recruitment. Their contrasting styles and the high-stakes nature of Premier League survival make this fixture a compelling subject for deep market analysis. The specific date and time slot, a midweek morning for North American audiences, also influences betting patterns and market liquidity on international platforms.
The rivalry between Burnley and Brentford is a relatively modern one in English football, intensified by their concurrent rises and battles in the Premier League. Historically, Burnley, founded in 1882, is one of English football's founding clubs, with two First Division titles (1921, 1960) and a longer tradition in the top flight. Brentford, founded in 1889, spent most of their history in the lower divisions before a transformative period under owner Matthew Benham. The competitive history between the two clubs is brief but has grown in significance. Their first competitive meeting in the 21st century occurred in the 2013/14 Championship season. The dynamic shifted when both clubs were promoted to the Premier League for the 2021/22 season, marking the start of a direct, high-stakes rivalry. In that season, Brentford did the double over Burnley, winning 3-1 at Turf Moor in October 2021 and 2-0 at the Brentford Community Stadium in March 2022. These results contributed to Burnley's eventual relegation that season. The clubs met again in the Championship in the 2022/23 season, with Burnley, under Kompany, winning both encounters (1-0 away, 2-1 at home) en route to the title, while Brentford was already an established Premier League side. This recent history of fluctuating fortunes and direct impact on each other's league status provides a backdrop of revenge, tactical adjustment, and survival imperative that fuels interest in the detailed match markets.
The proliferation of 'more markets' for a match like Burnley vs. Brentford reflects a broader shift in sports consumption and the global gambling economy. These micro-markets allow for continuous engagement throughout the 90 minutes, transforming a spectator into an active participant with a financial stake in specific events like the next throw-in or corner. Economically, these markets drive significant revenue for licensed sportsbooks and betting exchanges, contributing to the estimated multi-billion pound annual turnover of the UK sports betting industry alone. For the clubs, the result carries immense financial consequences. Each position in the Premier League table is worth approximately £2.2 million in merit payments from the league's central broadcasting fund. The difference between survival and relegation can exceed £100 million in lost revenue. Beyond direct finances, the match matters deeply to the local communities of Burnley in Lancashire and Brentford in West London. A positive result can boost local morale and business, while a negative one carries social weight. For prediction market participants, the game is a data-rich case study in contrasting football philosophies, offering a test of analytical models against the unpredictable nature of sport.
As of late February 2024, Burnley is in a precarious position near the bottom of the Premier League table, fighting to avoid relegation. Brentford sits in a more comfortable mid-table position but is not entirely clear of relegation concerns. The most recent development affecting markets is the confirmed return of Ivan Toney for Brentford, following his suspension, which has already impacted their attacking output. For Burnley, the fitness of key forward Lyle Foster is a constant topic. Both teams are coming off their most recent league fixtures, with those results and performances directly shaping the odds for this encounter. The match is scheduled for a weekday morning in the US, which may affect the volume of in-play betting compared to a weekend afternoon slot in the UK.
The match kicks off at 10:00 AM Eastern Time (ET) on February 28. This is 3:00 PM Greenwich Mean Time (GMT) in the UK, 4:00 PM Central European Time (CET), and 7:00 AM Pacific Time (PT).
In the United Kingdom, the match is broadcast live on TNT Sports. In the United States, it is available on the USA Network and via the streaming service Peacock. Global broadcast rights vary by region.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
9 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 77% |
| Poly | 55% |
| Poly | 55% |
| Poly | 14% |
| Poly | 3% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
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