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When will the House pass a reconciliation bill?

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When will the House pass a reconciliation bill?

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Polymarket

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Kalshi

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6 markets tracked

Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Jan 1, 2027)

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Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Jan 1, 2027)	Kalshi	27%
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Dec 1, 2026)	Kalshi	25%
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Nov 1, 2026)	Kalshi	20%
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Oct 1, 2026)	Kalshi	11%
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Sep 1, 2026)	Kalshi	5%
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Aug 1, 2026)	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

27%

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About This Event

In 2027 If a reconciliation bill passes the House before X 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Such bills typically begin with the phrase: “To provide for reconciliation pursuant to…" This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** When will the House pass a reconciliation bill?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2027

If a reconciliation bill passes the House before X 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Such bills typically begin with the phrase: “To provide for reconciliation pursuant to…" This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If a reconciliation bill passes the House before September 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Such bills typically begin with the phrase: “To provide for reconciliation pursuant to…" Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Sep 1, 2026)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Oct 1, 2026)
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Nov 1, 2026)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 20.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Jan 1, 2027)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 27.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Dec 1, 2026)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Aug 1, 2026)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

When will the House pass a reconciliation bill?

Volume$0.00

Markets6

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KALSHI

Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Jan 1, 2027)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 27.0¢No 73.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Jan 1, 2027)

If a reconciliation bill passes the House before January 01, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Such bills typically begin with the phrase: “To provide for reconciliation pursuant to…" Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Dec 1, 2026)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 24.5¢No 75.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Dec 1, 2026)

If a reconciliation bill passes the House before December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Such bills typically begin with the phrase: “To provide for reconciliation pursuant to…" Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Nov 1, 2026)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 20.0¢No 80.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Nov 1, 2026)

If a reconciliation bill passes the House before November 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Such bills typically begin with the phrase: “To provide for reconciliation pursuant to…" Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Oct 1, 2026)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.0¢No 89.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Oct 1, 2026)

If a reconciliation bill passes the House before October 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Such bills typically begin with the phrase: “To provide for reconciliation pursuant to…" Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Sep 1, 2026)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Sep 1, 2026)

If a reconciliation bill passes the House before September 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Such bills typically begin with the phrase: “To provide for reconciliation pursuant to…" Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

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When will the House pass a reconciliation bill?

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Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Jan 1, 2027)

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Events (1)

When will the House pass a reconciliation bill?

Markets (6)

Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Jan 1, 2027)

Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Jan 1, 2027)

Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Dec 1, 2026)

Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Dec 1, 2026)

Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Nov 1, 2026)

Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Nov 1, 2026)

Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Oct 1, 2026)

Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Oct 1, 2026)

Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Sep 1, 2026)

Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Sep 1, 2026)

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Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Jan 1, 2027)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

When will the House pass a reconciliation bill?

Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Jan 1, 2027)

Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Jan 1, 2027)

Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Dec 1, 2026)

Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Dec 1, 2026)

Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Nov 1, 2026)

Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Nov 1, 2026)

Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Oct 1, 2026)

Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Oct 1, 2026)

Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Sep 1, 2026)

Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? (Before Sep 1, 2026)

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