Name: Turnout in 2025 Portugal Presidential Election First Round (Higher Strikes)
End: 2026-01-18T00:00:00.000Z

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Turnout in 2025 Portugal Presidential Election First Round (Higher Strikes) | PredictPedia

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $19.21K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $19.21K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be at least 50%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be at least 50%?	Poly	68%
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 49% and 50%?	Poly	14%
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 48% and 49%?	Poly	12%
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 47% and 48%?	Poly	9%
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be less than 45%?	Poly	8%
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 46% and 47%?	Poly	8%
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 45% and 46%?	Poly	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

68%

Top Probability

$19.21K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on January 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the first-round turnout percentage, calculated as “Total votantes” divided by “Total inscritos” If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the election aren’t known by May 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based o

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Turnout in 2025 Portugal Presidential Election First Round (Higher Strikes)
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 18, 2026 (3 days left)
**Time Pressure:** High

**Description:** First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on January 18, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the first-round turnout percentage, calculated as “Total votantes” divided by “Total inscritos”

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the election aren’t known by May 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.  

This market will resolve based o

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on January 18, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the first-round turnout percentage, calculated as “Total votantes” divided by “Total inscritos”

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this mar"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $19.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $14.2K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.36)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be less than 45%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 18, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 46% and 47%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 18, 2026): Vol $702
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 48% and 49%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 18, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.7% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 45% and 46%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 18, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 47% and 48%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 18, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 49% and 50%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 18, 2026): Vol $984
  DATA: [Yes: 13.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.2% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be at least 50%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 18, 2026): Vol $12.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 67.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 32.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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