$87.28K
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4
$87.28K
1
4
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection located at 48.326824° N, 37.081821° E in Hryshyne, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red under a below-specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded by the specified date ET, the market will resolve t
Prediction markets currently give Russia an 88% chance of capturing a specific intersection in Hryshyne, a village in Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast, by June 30, 2026. In simple terms, traders see this as very likely, with odds approaching 9 in 10. This high probability shows strong collective belief that Russian forces will control this small but symbolically significant point within the next four months.
The high confidence stems from recent military trends and the village's location. Hryshyne is near Pokrovsk, a city that has become a focal point of Russia's 2024 offensive in eastern Ukraine. Russian forces have made gradual, costly advances in this sector, capturing several villages over the past year. The specific intersection in the contract is a tactical objective within this broader push.
Geographically, Hryshyne lies on a potential approach toward larger Ukrainian logistical hubs. Its capture would represent another incremental gain in a war often measured in meters. The market's high "Yes" probability likely reflects an assessment that current Russian pressure and localized artillery superiority in the area will continue, allowing them to eventually secure this point, even if progress is slow.
The resolution date itself, June 30, 2026, is the final deadline. However, more immediate shifts could come from changes on the ground. Watch for updates from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), whose maps officially determine the outcome. A major shift in the frontline near Pokrovsk or a significant change in the flow of Western military aid to Ukraine could alter the pace of advance and change these odds before the deadline.
Prediction markets have a mixed but interesting record on geopolitical military outcomes. They often efficiently aggregate scattered information from news, satellite imagery, and expert commentary. For specific, binary events like "capture point X by date Y," they can be quite focused. However, the reliability here is constrained by the niche nature of the contract. With only $87,000 wagered, the market is relatively thin. This means it may be more sensitive to sentiment than a deep, liquid market would be, and it focuses on a tiny tactical outcome rather than the war's strategic direction.
The Polymarket contract "Will Russia capture Hryshyne by June 30, 2026?" is trading at 88 cents, implying an 88% probability of a Russian capture. This price signals near-certainty among traders that the village will fall within the next four months. With only $87,000 in total volume spread across four related date markets, liquidity is thin. This low volume means the current high-confidence price could be more vulnerable to sharp moves from individual bets or new information.
The 88% price directly reflects Russia's persistent, grinding offensive in the Donetsk Oblast. Hryshyne is a small settlement southwest of the heavily contested city of Avdiivka. Since capturing Avdiivka in February 2024, Russian forces have made incremental but steady westward gains, prioritizing villages like Hryshyne along the front line. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), whose maps determine this market's resolution, has consistently documented this gradual Russian advance. Traders are pricing in a continuation of this established tactical pattern: Russian forces apply concentrated artillery and infantry pressure until Ukrainian defenders, often outgunned and needing to manage a long front line, are forced to withdraw to more defensible positions.
The primary risk to the current high-probability consensus is a major shift in the military balance before the June 30 deadline. A significant acceleration of Western military aid, particularly longer-range artillery shells and air defense systems that reach Ukraine in the coming weeks, could slow or stall Russian advances. Conversely, a Ukrainian collapse in a nearby sector, such as around Chasiv Yar, could accelerate Russia's momentum and make Hryshyne's fall a foregone conclusion sooner than expected. The thin market liquidity amplifies the potential price impact of any new, high-conviction bettor entering the market or a clear change in the daily ISW map assessments.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on whether Russian forces will capture a specific geographic point in Hryshyne, a village in Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast, by a predetermined deadline. The resolution depends on the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW) daily interactive map, which tracks territorial control in the conflict. A 'Yes' outcome requires the intersection at coordinates 48.326824° N, 37.081821° E to be shaded red, indicating Russian control, on the specified date. The ISW map has become a widely referenced standard for assessing front-line changes in the Russo-Ukrainian War. Hryshyne is located approximately 30 kilometers southwest of the city of Donetsk and has been near the front lines since 2014. Control of this village is part of Russia's broader 2024 offensive operation aimed at capturing the remainder of Donetsk Oblast. The village itself is small, with a pre-war population under 2,000, but its position has tactical value for operations toward larger urban centers like Pokrovsk. Interest in this specific prediction stems from its function as a measurable indicator of Russian offensive momentum in a critical sector of the front. Analysts and observers use such granular battles to gauge whether Russian advances are stalling or gaining pace ahead of potential future operations.
Hryshyne's strategic relevance is rooted in the geography of the Donbas region and the history of the war since 2014. The village is situated in an area that saw fighting between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists following Russia's annexation of Crimea. The line of contact stabilized after the 2015 Minsk II agreements, with Hryshyne remaining under Ukrainian control but close to the front. Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022 reopened the battle for Donetsk Oblast. A major Russian objective has been to capture the entire oblast, which the Kremlin claims as part of Russia following its illegal annexation proclamation in September 2022. The campaign to seize remaining Ukrainian-held areas in Donetsk intensified in late 2023 with the fall of Marinka and Avdiivka in early 2024. These victories created a salient that allowed Russian forces to press westward along multiple axes, including toward Pokrovsk. The fighting for Hryshyne in mid-2024 is a continuation of this slow, village-by-village advance that has characterized the Donetsk front for over two years. Similar battles for nearby settlements like Novopokrovske and Yasnobrodivka set a precedent for how Russian forces use concentrated firepower to overcome fortified Ukrainian positions.
The battle for Hryshyne matters because it is a leading indicator of Russian offensive potential in a key operational sector. If Russia captures the village, it gains a foothold to intensify pressure on the Ukrainian logistics hub of Pokrovsk, a city of about 60,000 people. Controlling Pokrovsk would sever a major Ukrainian ground line of communication along the H-15 highway, potentially destabilizing Ukraine's defense across a wider area of Donetsk. For Ukraine, losing a series of villages like Hryshyne risks enabling Russian forces to bring longer-range artillery within range of larger population centers and critical infrastructure. On a political level, continued Russian territorial gains, even if small, challenge Western narratives about Ukrainian defensive resilience and could influence debates in allied capitals about the pace and scale of military aid. For residents, the capture of Hryshyne would mean permanent occupation under Russian military administration, likely leading to forced conscription, filtration camps, and the imposition of Russian curricula in schools, as seen in other occupied territories.
As of late May 2024, Russian forces have made confirmed advances in the fields south and southwest of Hryshyne, according to geolocated footage analyzed by the ISW and other conflict monitors. Ukrainian military reports from May 27 acknowledged heavy fighting in the Pokrovsk direction, with Russian forces attempting to advance near Hryshyne and neighboring settlements. The ISW's May 28 map assessment noted that Russian troops continued offensive operations in the area but did not show the specific Hryshyne intersection as captured. Russian military bloggers have reported ongoing assaults by units of the 132nd Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade in the vicinity. Ukrainian forces are contesting the advance from prepared defensive positions.
The ISW map is a daily updated, interactive web map that depicts assessed territorial control in Ukraine. It is created by a team of analysts who synthesize open-source intelligence, including geolocated combat footage, official statements, and satellite imagery. The map uses a color scheme where red indicates Russian control, blue indicates Ukrainian control, and gray indicates contested areas.
Hryshyne is a rural settlement in the Pokrovsk Raion of Donetsk Oblast, eastern Ukraine. Its geographic coordinates are approximately 48.33°N, 37.08°E. It is situated about 30 kilometers southwest of the city of Donetsk and 25 kilometers east of the city of Pokrovsk.
The intersection at 48.326824° N, 37.081821° E likely represents a key road junction within the village. Controlling such junctions is militarily significant as it allows forces to maneuver, resupply, and project power along multiple axes. For mapping purposes, a specific coordinate provides an unambiguous point for resolving control.
ISW analysts declare an area captured when they assess Russian forces have established stable, enduring control over it. This assessment is based on multiple consistent reports from both sides, visual evidence of Russian troops operating freely in the location, and an absence of evidence of continued Ukrainian military presence or counter-attacks to retake it.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
4 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 88% |
| Poly | 61% |
| Poly | 35% |
| Poly | 7% |
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