Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

Highest 24-hour rainfall in Bangkok, October 4-10?

Name: Highest 24-hour rainfall in Bangkok, October 4-10?
End: 2026-10-18T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$12.99K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Highest 24-hour rainfall in Bangkok, October 4-10?

Vol

$12.99K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $12.99K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $12.99K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Will Bangkok's highest 24-hour rainfall on October 4-10 be between 50-100mm?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Bangkok's highest 24-hour rainfall on October 4-10 be between 50-100mm?	Poly	96%
Will Bangkok's highest 24-hour rainfall on October 4-10 be 100mm or more?	Poly	4%
Will Bangkok's highest 24-hour rainfall on October 4-10 be less than 20mm?	Poly	1%
Will Bangkok's highest 24-hour rainfall on October 4-10 be between 20-50mm?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

96%

Top Probability

$12.99K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the highest 24-hour rainfall amount recorded at the BANGKOK METROPOLIS station between October 4 and October 10, 2026, according to the Thai Meteorological Department (TMD). The resolution source for this market will be the TMD, specifically the highest of the values in the "24 hr." column under "Rainfall Amount (mm.)" for the "BANGKOK METROPOLIS" row in the Daily Weather Summary reports dated October 4, 2026 through October 10, 2026, at the https://www.tmd

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Highest 24-hour rainfall in Bangkok, October 4-10?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 18, 2026 (7 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the highest 24-hour rainfall amount recorded at the BANGKOK METROPOLIS station between October 4 and October 10, 2026, according to the Thai Meteorological Department (TMD).

The resolution source for this market will be the TMD, specifically the highest of the values in the "24 hr." column under "Rainfall Amount (mm.)" for the "BANGKOK METROPOLIS" row in the Daily Weather Summary reports dated October 4, 2026 through October 10, 2026, at the https://www.tmd

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the highest 24-hour rainfall amount recorded at the BANGKOK METROPOLIS station between October 4 and October 10, 2026, according to the Thai Meteorological Department (TMD).

The resolution source for this market will be the TMD, specifically the highest of the "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $13.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $6.5K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.99)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Bangkok's highest 24-hour rainfall on October 4-10 be less than 20mm?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Bangkok's highest 24-hour rainfall on October 4-10 be between 20-50mm?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Bangkok's highest 24-hour rainfall on October 4-10 be between 50-100mm?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $7.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 95.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.2% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Bangkok's highest 24-hour rainfall on October 4-10 be 100mm or more?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.3% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate