Closest Senate race in 2026? | PredictPedia

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10 markets tracked

Will Georgia have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?

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Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Georgia have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?	Kalshi	18%
Will Maine have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?	Kalshi	14%
Will Ohio have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?	Kalshi	12%
Will Texas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?	Kalshi	11%
Will North Carolina have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?	Kalshi	11%
Will Iowa have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?	Kalshi	11%
Will Alaska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?	Kalshi	10%
Will New Hampshire have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?	Kalshi	8%
Will Michigan have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?	Kalshi	8%
Will Minnesota have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?	Kalshi	3%

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Closest Senate race in 2026?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 3, 2027

If X has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Alaska has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For t"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $15.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $451.20M
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Alaska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $825
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Texas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Ohio have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will New Hampshire have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $677
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will North Carolina have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Minnesota have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $69
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Michigan have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $890
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Maine have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Iowa have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Georgia have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $5.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 18.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Will Georgia have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?

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Events (1)

Closest Senate race in 2026?

Markets (10)

Will Georgia have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?

Will Georgia have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?

Will Maine have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?

Will Maine have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?

Will Ohio have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?

Will Ohio have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?

Will Texas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?

Will Texas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?

Will North Carolina have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?

Will North Carolina have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?

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Will Georgia have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?

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Closest Senate race in 2026?

Will Georgia have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?

Will Georgia have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?

Will Maine have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?

Will Maine have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?

Will Ohio have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?

Will Ohio have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?

Will Texas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?

Will Texas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?

Will North Carolina have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?

Will North Carolina have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?

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