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$64.00
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the Republican party win the Secretary of State election in Ohio? | Kalshi | 88% |
Will the Democratic party win the Secretary of State election in Ohio? | Kalshi | 9% |
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In 2026 If a representative X party is elected the Secretary of State of Ohio in the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction markets currently assign a 63% probability that the Democratic Party will win the Nevada Secretary of State election in 2026. This price, trading on Kalshi, indicates the market views a Democratic victory as the more likely outcome, but with significant uncertainty. The "moderate confidence" label and the lack of trading volume highlight this is a thin, illiquid market where the current price is a preliminary signal rather than a deeply held consensus.
Two structural factors are likely shaping the early odds. First, Nevada is a perennial swing state where statewide elections are often decided by narrow margins, giving the incumbent party a slight historical advantage. The Democratic Party currently holds the Nevada Secretary of State office, providing a baseline advantage. Second, the 2026 election is a midterm cycle, which historically favors the party not holding the presidency. If a Democrat is in the White House in 2026, this typical "midterm penalty" could create a headwind for the Democratic candidate, which the current 63% price may partially reflect.
The odds will remain highly volatile until concrete candidate and national political landscapes emerge. The most significant catalyst will be the official filing of candidates, which will clarify the quality of each party's nominee and allow for early polling. The results of the 2024 presidential and Senate elections in Nevada will also serve as a major reset, providing fresh data on the state's partisan lean and voter turnout patterns. Finally, the national political environment in 2026, particularly the approval rating of the sitting president, will be a dominant factor that could dramatically swing the odds toward or against the Democratic candidate.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The 2026 Nevada Secretary of State election will determine who serves as the state's chief elections officer, business registrar, and keeper of state records for a four-year term. This position has gained heightened national attention due to Nevada's status as a perennial swing state in presidential elections and the increased focus on election administration following the 2020 election. The Secretary of State oversees Nevada's election systems, certifies results, maintains business filings, and manages the state's archives. The 2026 election will feature candidates from both major parties vying for an office that has become central to debates about election integrity, voting access, and democratic processes. The outcome could influence how Nevada administers the 2028 presidential election and shape business regulations in a state where tourism and corporate filings generate significant revenue. Current interest stems from Nevada's narrow electoral margins, recent controversies over election procedures, and the growing political importance of secretaries of state nationwide. The race will test whether Nevada voters prefer election administration focused on security or accessibility, with implications for control of a key battleground state's electoral machinery.
Nevada created the Secretary of State position when it achieved statehood in 1864. For much of its history, the office attracted little controversy, focusing primarily on business registrations and record-keeping. This changed following the 2000 presidential election, when Nevada's electoral votes became consistently competitive. The 2004 election saw the Secretary of State's race become more partisan, with Republican Dean Heller winning that year before moving to Congress. The 2010 election brought Republican Ross Miller to the office, followed by Republican Barbara Cegavske in 2014. Cegavske's tenure coincided with the most contentious period in the office's history. In 2020, Nevada implemented universal mail voting due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and Cegavske certified Joe Biden's 33,596-vote victory despite pressure from within her party to question the results. This led to primary challenges from election-skeptic candidates in 2022. Democrat Cisco Aguilar's 2022 victory marked the first time a Democrat had won the office since 1994, reflecting Nevada's shifting political landscape and the increased salience of election administration issues. The 2026 election will continue this trend of competitive races for an office that has transformed from administrative to highly political.
The Nevada Secretary of State election matters because the officeholder will administer the 2028 presidential election in a critical swing state. Nevada has decided the last four presidential elections by margins under 3%, making election procedures potentially decisive. Different approaches to voter registration, ballot access, and result certification could affect outcomes in close races. The Secretary also influences Nevada's business climate through corporate filing systems and regulations. With over 600,000 business entities registered in Nevada, efficient administration affects economic activity and state revenue. Socially, the election represents a referendum on voting rights versus election security. Policies on voter ID, mail voting, and early access disproportionately affect minority communities, rural voters, and elderly populations. The winner will shape how Nevada balances preventing fraud with ensuring access, with national implications as other states watch Nevada's experiments in election administration. Downstream consequences include potential changes to Nevada's status as a business-friendly state and either reinforcement or undermining of public confidence in election results.
As of late 2024, Democratic Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar is serving the second year of his four-year term and is expected to seek reelection in 2026. No Republican challengers have formally declared, though speculation centers on possible candidates from both establishment and election-skeptic wings of the party. Aguilar has implemented several election policy changes, including expanded language access and business filing modernization. The Nevada legislature, controlled by Democrats, passed election law changes in 2023 that the next Secretary will implement, including provisions for automatic voter registration updates. National political organizations are already assessing the race's importance, with both parties likely to invest significantly given Nevada's swing state status and the office's role in administering the 2028 presidential election.
The Nevada Secretary of State serves as chief elections officer, overseeing all federal and state elections. The office also maintains business registrations, files trademarks, manages the state's archives, and serves on several state boards including the Board of Examiners and the State Records Committee.
The election will be held on November 3, 2026, as part of Nevada's general election. Primaries to select party nominees will occur in June 2026, with early voting beginning in mid-October 2026.
The Secretary of State serves a four-year term. The winner of the 2026 election will serve from January 2027 through January 2031, encompassing the 2028 presidential election and 2030 midterm elections.
In 2022, Democrat Cisco Aguilar defeated Republican Jim Marchant by 22,346 votes, representing a 1.7 percentage point margin. Aguilar received 49.3% of the vote to Marchant's 47.6%, with minor candidates receiving the remainder.
The annual salary for Nevada Secretary of State is $102,898 as of 2024. This is set by the Nevada Legislature and may be adjusted before the 2026 election.
Candidates must be at least 25 years old, a qualified Nevada voter, and a resident of Nevada for at least two years preceding the election. There is no requirement for prior election administration experience or legal training.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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