
$49.05K
1
4

$49.05K
1
4
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In Jan 2026 If the total precipitation at Central Park, New York City in Jan 2026 is strictly greater than X inches, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.
Prediction markets currently assign an 85% probability that New York City will receive more than 1 inch of precipitation in January 2026. This high confidence level indicates traders view measurable winter precipitation as very likely, though not a complete certainty. The specific market, "Rain in NYC in Jan 2026? (Above 1 inches)," is trading at this price on Kalshi with approximately $48,000 in total volume spread across related thresholds, which is considered thin liquidity for a long-dated weather contract.
Two primary meteorological and historical factors support the high probability. First, New York City's climate data is definitive. According to the National Weather Service, the 30-year normal (1991-2020) for January precipitation in Central Park is 3.64 inches. January historically exceeds 1 inch of total precipitation (which includes liquid-equivalent from snow) in the vast majority of years, making it a climatological norm. Second, the 1-inch threshold is exceptionally low relative to the historical mean. It represents less than one-third of the typical monthly accumulation, so the market is essentially betting against a record-dry outlier month, which is a statistically rare event.
The primary catalyst for shifting these odds would be the emergence of a strong, persistent blocking weather pattern as January 2026 approaches. A dominant high-pressure system over the Northeast could divert storm tracks and lead to an extended dry period. While the market prices this risk at only 15%, monitoring long-range seasonal forecasts from agencies like the Climate Prediction Center in late 2025 will be critical. A forecast indicating heightened probability for below-normal precipitation could see the "No" shares gain value, though the extreme nature of falling below 1 inch means any significant odds shift would likely occur very close to the contract period.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
4 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Rain in NYC in Jan 2026? (Above 1 inches) | Kalshi | 80% |
Rain in NYC in Jan 2026? (Above 2 inches) | Kalshi | 37% |
Rain in NYC in Jan 2026? (Above 3 inches) | Kalshi | 10% |
Rain in NYC in Jan 2026? (Above 4 inches) | Kalshi | 3% |
This prediction market topic focuses on whether total precipitation at Central Park in New York City during January 2026 will exceed a specified threshold, measured in inches. Central Park serves as the official weather observation site for New York City, with measurements taken at the Central Park Weather Station operated by the National Weather Service. The market resolves to 'Yes' if precipitation strictly exceeds the predetermined amount, triggering an early close at 10am ET the following day. This type of weather derivative market allows participants to speculate on or hedge against specific meteorological outcomes, combining elements of climate science, urban infrastructure planning, and financial markets. Recent interest in such markets has grown alongside increased attention to climate volatility and its economic impacts on major metropolitan areas. New York City's winter precipitation patterns have shown increased variability in recent years, making January rainfall predictions relevant for sectors including transportation, retail, tourism, and emergency management. The market's structure reflects both meteorological forecasting challenges and the practical implications of winter weather in one of the world's most economically significant urban centers.
Central Park has maintained continuous weather records since 1869, providing one of the longest urban climate datasets in the United States. January precipitation in New York City has shown significant variability over this period, with the wettest January occurring in 1979 when 10.02 inches fell at Central Park, while the driest January recorded just 0.31 inches in 1981. The 20th century average for January precipitation at Central Park was approximately 3.65 inches, but recent decades have shown increased volatility. From 2000 to 2023, January precipitation averaged 3.98 inches, with several notable extremes including January 2020's 6.06 inches and January 2015's 1.79 inches. This historical context reveals both the natural variability of New York City's winter climate and potential trends toward increased precipitation extremes. The measurement methodology at Central Park has evolved over time, with the current automated station installed in 1996 providing more consistent hourly data than earlier manual observations. Historical precedent matters for this market because past January extremes establish the range of possible outcomes, while recent trends may inform expectations about whether future precipitation is more likely to exceed historical averages. Major storm systems affecting January precipitation include nor'easters, which can deliver substantial rainfall when warmer air masses override cold surface conditions, and occasional tropical moisture connections that have produced extreme precipitation events even in winter months.
January precipitation in New York City has substantial economic implications, affecting multiple sectors simultaneously. The transportation network, including airports, subways, and roads, experiences significant disruptions during heavy rainfall events, with economic costs estimated at millions of dollars per day in delayed shipments, canceled flights, and reduced productivity. Retail and hospitality sectors typically see reduced activity during rainy winter periods, while emergency services face increased demands. From an infrastructure perspective, New York City's combined sewer system can become overwhelmed during heavy rainfall, leading to discharge events that affect water quality in surrounding waterways. The city's vulnerability to precipitation extremes has increased with climate change, as warmer air holds more moisture and intensifies rainfall rates during storm events. This market matters beyond financial speculation because it represents a tangible metric for climate risk in one of the world's most important economic centers. The outcome provides data points for urban planners, insurance companies, and policymakers evaluating climate adaptation strategies. For residents and businesses, January precipitation levels influence winter energy consumption patterns, as rainfall often accompanies temperature fluctuations that affect heating demands. The market's resolution offers insight into whether New York City is experiencing the increased precipitation volatility that climate models project for the Northeast United States.
As of late 2024, climate models show mixed signals for Northeast U.S. winter precipitation patterns in coming years. The Climate Prediction Center's most recent seasonal outlooks indicate no strong precipitation signals for the Northeast during winter 2025-2026, suggesting near-equal chances of above, near, or below-average precipitation. Current sea surface temperature patterns in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, which influence winter storm tracks, show neutral to weak El Niño conditions that typically correlate with near-average precipitation for the New York City region. The National Weather Service continues to monitor developing climate patterns that could affect January 2026 forecasts, with particular attention to Arctic oscillation patterns that influence nor'easter frequency and intensity. Recent infrastructure improvements in New York City, including green infrastructure installations and sewer system upgrades, may marginally affect local precipitation measurements through reduced runoff retention, though Central Park measurements remain the official standard.
The National Weather Service operates an automated weather station in Central Park that uses a heated tipping bucket rain gauge to measure liquid precipitation. The gauge is located at the Central Park Conservatory Garden and records precipitation in 0.01 inch increments. Measurements are verified through quality control procedures and archived as the official New York City climate record.
The measurement includes all forms of precipitation that fall as liquid or melt to liquid, including rain, freezing rain, sleet, and the liquid equivalent of snowfall. Snow is melted and measured as its water equivalent, with 10 inches of typical snow approximately equal to 1 inch of liquid precipitation. The gauge is heated to ensure accurate measurement of all precipitation types.
Seasonal precipitation forecasts for specific months like January have limited accuracy due to atmospheric chaos and numerous influencing factors. The Climate Prediction Center's seasonal outlooks typically show probabilistic forecasts with confidence levels around 60-70% for strong climate pattern signals. For January 2026, forecasts will become more reliable approximately 2-3 weeks before the month begins as shorter-range models incorporate more current data.
Climate data shows a 10-15% increase in winter precipitation in the Northeast United States since the early 20th century, with more precipitation falling as rain rather than snow. Extreme precipitation events have become more frequent, with the heaviest 1% of daily precipitation events increasing by 55% in the Northeast from 1958 to 2016. However, January precipitation variability remains high from year to year.
Above-average January precipitation typically results from an active storm track along the East Coast, often associated with negative North Atlantic Oscillation conditions that allow storms to develop closer to the coast. El Niño winters tend to produce near-average precipitation, while La Niña conditions sometimes correlate with drier winters. Nor'easters developing off the Southeast coast and tracking northward deliver the most significant January rainfall events.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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