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Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by...? | PredictPedia

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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by...?

Name: Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by...?
End: 2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$59.46K

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Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by...?

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Polymarket

markets · $59.46K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $59.46K

100%

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1 market tracked

Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by May 31, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by May 31, 2026?	Poly	12%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, May 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 30, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if Abbas Araghchi ceases to be Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Abbas Araghchi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the sp

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Abbas Araghchi ceases to be Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Abbas Araghchi's resignation/removal before this market's "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $250
* **Total Liquidity:** $10.9K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.02)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by May 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $250
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

12¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/tcdMhD" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by...?"></iframe>

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Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by...?

Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by...?

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Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by May 31, 2026?

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Events (1)