$4.23K
1
6
$4.23K
1
6
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
Before 2026 If X is on The Late Show from 08/01/2025 at 10 AM and before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Prediction markets currently assign a 74% probability that Seth Meyers will appear on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert between August 1, 2025, and June 1, 2026. This price, trading on Kalshi, indicates the market views a guest appearance as likely, but not a foregone conclusion. With only about $4,000 in total volume spread thinly across related markets, this reflects moderate confidence from a limited pool of traders rather than a deep, liquid consensus.
The high probability is primarily driven by industry norms and professional relationships. Seth Meyers, as the host of NBC's Late Night, is a direct peer and friend of Stephen Colbert within the tight-knit New York late-night community. Cross-promotional guest appearances between these shows are a common, almost traditional practice. Meyers has been a guest on The Late Show multiple times in the past, including for promotional tours and during major news cycles, establishing a clear precedent.
Furthermore, Meyers will likely have projects to promote within the contract timeframe. Whether for his own show, a comedy special, or another venture, The Late Show serves as a premier platform for reaching a massive audience. The lack of a direct time slot competition, as their shows air on different networks, removes a significant barrier to such bookings.
The primary factor that could lower the probability would be an unforeseen scheduling conflict or a major change in the late-night landscape itself. If either host were to depart their show unexpectedly within the contract period, the event would become impossible. A prolonged industry strike, similar to the 2023 WGA/SAG-AFTRA actions, could also halt production and guest bookings, delaying any appearance past the June 2026 cutoff.
Conversely, odds could solidify further if official announcements or industry reporting signal an upcoming booking. A confirmed promotional schedule for a new season of Late Night or a major political event, like the 2024 election aftermath, often drives these hosts to each other's couches for commentary, providing a tangible catalyst well before the deadline.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns whether a specific individual, referred to as X, will appear as a guest on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert between August 1, 2025, and June 1, 2026. The Late Show, a cornerstone of American late-night television broadcast on CBS, serves as a major platform for celebrities, politicians, authors, and newsmakers to promote projects, discuss current events, and engage in entertainment. Guest bookings are a critical component of the show's success and cultural relevance, often reflecting broader trends in media, politics, and popular culture. The identity of X is central to the market's interest, as it could be a high-profile figure from entertainment, politics, or business whose appearance would generate significant public and media attention. Recent years have seen The Late Show host major political figures during election cycles, A-list celebrities during major film releases, and controversial figures driving public discourse. The market's timeframe, spanning the latter half of 2025 into mid-2026, coincides with potential major events like the aftermath of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, awards season, and summer blockbuster movie promotions, all of which influence booking decisions. Interest in this market stems from the predictive challenge of gauging a production team's strategy, a public figure's media itinerary, and the intersecting schedules of high-demand individuals.
The Late Show with Stephen Colbert premiered on September 8, 2015, following David Letterman's retirement. It quickly established itself as a destination for political commentary and A-list interviews, a tradition inherited from its predecessor. Historically, the show has booked guests aligned with major news cycles. For example, during the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, it featured numerous candidates, including then-candidate Donald Trump in 2015 and President Joe Biden in 2020. The show also has a strong track record with entertainment figures during key industry windows. The Oscars season, typically January through February, sees a surge in actor and director appearances, while summer months often feature stars from major franchise films. A significant precedent was the show's first post-pandemic in-studio audience episode on June 14, 2021, which featured President Biden, signaling a return to high-stakes bookings. The booking of controversial figures, such as Elon Musk in 2018, has also driven ratings and discourse, demonstrating the producers' willingness to book guests who generate headlines. These patterns provide a framework for predicting potential guests in the 2025-2026 window.
Guest appearances on The Late Show are more than mere entertainment. They are significant media events that can shape public perception, drive news cycles, and influence cultural and political narratives. A booking can serve as a powerful validation for a public figure, providing a platform to reach an audience of approximately 2.5 million nightly viewers and countless more through online clips. For individuals in politics, an interview can be a strategic tool to communicate directly with voters or reframe a policy discussion. For those in entertainment, it is a crucial component of a marketing campaign for a film, album, or book, with the potential to impact commercial success. The decision to book or not book a particular figure can also reflect broader cultural tensions or network priorities, making it a barometer of mainstream media's stance on certain issues. Downstream consequences include amplified social media discussion, increased sales or polling bumps for the guest, and sometimes criticism of the show for providing a platform, highlighting the delicate balance producers must maintain.
As of late 2024, The Late Show continues its regular production schedule. The show maintains its position as a leader in late-night television, consistently booking a mix of political, entertainment, and literary guests. The upcoming 2025-2026 period covered by the prediction market will follow the November 2024 U.S. presidential election, which is likely to influence the show's booking strategy for political analysts, administration officials, and potential 2028 candidates. Furthermore, the Hollywood production schedule has largely recovered from 2023 labor strikes, meaning a robust slate of films and television shows will be seeking promotion in 2025 and 2026. The show's booking team is actively planning months in advance, making decisions now that will materialize in the market's timeframe.
Guests are typically booked several weeks to several months in advance, especially for A-list celebrities or high-profile politicians. For major events like a presidential interview or a star promoting a blockbuster film, negotiations can begin six months or more ahead of the desired appearance date.
Yes, prediction markets like Polymarket and PredictIt have hosted markets on specific celebrity appearances on shows like Saturday Night Live and specific political interviews. These markets are resolved based on verifiable public appearances or official announcements from the show.
Key factors include relevance to current events, promotional needs for a new project (film, book, album), the guest's ability to engage in entertaining conversation, potential for viral moments, and alignment with the host's interests and the show's editorial tone. Network synergies and exclusivity deals can also play a role.
Yes, cancellations do occur due to illness, scheduling conflicts, or breaking news. The show maintains a roster of potential replacement guests, often comedians or recurring personalities, to fill sudden vacancies. A cancellation would not count as an appearance for the purposes of this prediction market.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
Share your predictions and analysis with other traders. Coming soon!
6 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will Seth Meyers be on The Late Show before 2026? | Kalshi | 74% |
Will Ryan Gosling be on The Late Show before 2026? | Kalshi | 56% |
Will Pedro Pascal be on The Late Show before 2026? | Kalshi | 47% |
Will Zendaya be on The Late Show before 2026? | Kalshi | 42% |
Will Travis Kelce be on The Late Show before 2026? | Kalshi | 13% |
Will Donald Trump be on The Late Show before 2026? | Kalshi | 4% |
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/teP-DO" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Who will be on The Late Show?"></iframe>