Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

How many House seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?

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$50.97K

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How many House seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?

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$50.97K

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Kalshi

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Kalshi

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Volume DistributionTotal: $50.97K

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Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 210 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?

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Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 210 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?	Kalshi	96%
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 214 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?	Kalshi	95%
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 222 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?	Kalshi	93%
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 218 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?	Kalshi	93%
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 226 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?	Kalshi	82%
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 230 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?	Kalshi	71%
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 234 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?	Kalshi	64%
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 238 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?	Kalshi	51%
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 242 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?	Kalshi	32%
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 246 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?	Kalshi	25%
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 250 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?	Kalshi	15%

AI Analysis

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96%

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$50.97K

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About This Event

of the 435 seats up in the 2026 U.S. House elections, based on media calls If the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least X in the 2026 U.S. House elections, then the market resolves to Yes. X seat counts only if the relevant election authority records a Democratic designation for the winning candidate’s candidacy in the November 3, 2026 general election; a recognized state affiliate, including the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party and the North Dakota De

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many House seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** of the 435 seats up in the 2026 U.S. House elections, based on media calls

If the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least X in the 2026 U.S. House elections, then the market resolves to Yes. X seat counts only if the relevant election authority records a Democratic designation for the winning candidate’s candidacy in the November 3, 2026 general election; a recognized state affiliate, including the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party and the North Dakota De

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 250 in the 2026 U.S. House elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A seat counts only if the relevant election authority records a Democratic designation for the winning candidate’s candidacy in the"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $51.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 250 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $7.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 246 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $4.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 242 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $4.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 32.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 238 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $3.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 234 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 64.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 36.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 230 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $3.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 71.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 226 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $8.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 82.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 18.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 222 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $5.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 92.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 218 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 92.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 214 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $3.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 95.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 210 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $3.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 95.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

How many House seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?

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KALSHI

Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 210 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 95.5¢No 4.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 210 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?

If the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 210 in the 2026 U.S. House elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A seat counts only if the relevant election authority records a Democratic designation for the winning candidate’s candidacy in the

KALSHI

Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 214 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 95.0¢No 5.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 214 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?

If the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 214 in the 2026 U.S. House elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A seat counts only if the relevant election authority records a Democratic designation for the winning candidate’s candidacy in the

KALSHI

Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 222 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 92.5¢No 7.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 222 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?

If the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 222 in the 2026 U.S. House elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A seat counts only if the relevant election authority records a Democratic designation for the winning candidate’s candidacy in the

KALSHI

Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 218 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 92.5¢No 7.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 218 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?

If the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 218 in the 2026 U.S. House elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A seat counts only if the relevant election authority records a Democratic designation for the winning candidate’s candidacy in the

KALSHI

Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 226 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 82.0¢No 18.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 226 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?

If the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 226 in the 2026 U.S. House elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A seat counts only if the relevant election authority records a Democratic designation for the winning candidate’s candidacy in the

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Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 210 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?

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Events (1)

How many House seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?

Markets (11)

Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 210 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?

Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 210 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?

Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 214 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?

Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 214 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?

Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 222 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?

Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 222 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?

Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 218 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?

Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 218 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?

Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 226 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?

Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 226 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?

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Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 210 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How many House seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?

Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 210 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?

Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 210 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?

Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 214 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?

Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 214 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?

Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 222 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?

Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 222 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?

Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 218 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?

Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 218 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?

Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 226 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?

Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 226 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?

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