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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026 lasts for at least the listed number of days, inclusive of the beginning and ending dates. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The end date of the shut down will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.
Prediction markets show a strong consensus that the Department of Homeland Security shutdown will last at least a week. The leading market gives this a 95% chance, meaning traders see it as almost certain. This suggests the funding standoff in Congress is not expected to be resolved quickly. A separate market on whether the shutdown lasts 14 days or more is trading at about a 60% probability, indicating a roughly 3 in 5 chance it stretches into a third week. The collective view is a shutdown measured in weeks, not days.
Two main factors are driving these pessimistic odds. First, the political divide over Homeland Security funding is especially sharp. Disagreements often center on border security and immigration policy, which are consistently contentious issues. This makes a last-minute deal harder to reach. Second, recent history provides a guide. The last major DHS shutdown threat in 2015 lasted only a few days, but the broader federal shutdown in late 2018 stretched for 35 days. Traders are likely looking at that 2018 precedent and the current polarized political climate as a model, expecting a prolonged impasse.
The main event to watch is any action in Congress on a "clean" funding bill or a new compromise package. Statements from key congressional leaders, especially the Speaker of the House and the Senate Majority Leader, will signal progress or deadlock. The market will also react to any planned votes. Since the shutdown began on February 14, the 7-day and 14-day markers themselves are psychological deadlines. If the government remains closed past those points, pressure and public attention will increase, which could force negotiations or harden positions further.
Prediction markets have a solid track record forecasting political events like government shutdowns, often outperforming polls and pundits. They aggregate many informed views in real time. However, their accuracy depends on traders having good information. A sudden, unexpected backroom deal could resolve the shutdown faster than markets predict. These odds also can't account for unpredictable events, like a national security incident, that might force an immediate resolution. While the high confidence in a week-long shutdown is probably correct, the forecasts for longer durations are more speculative and can shift quickly with news.
Prediction markets assign a 95% probability that the Department of Homeland Security shutdown will last 7 days or more. This price indicates near-certainty among traders that the funding impasse will extend beyond a week. With $1.2 million in total volume across related markets, this is a highly liquid and actively traded political event. The market resolves on March 14, 2026, providing a two-week window for the funding crisis to end.
The 95% price reflects a stark political reality. The shutdown began on February 14, 2026, and markets are pricing in a prolonged stalemate. DHS funding is historically contentious, often entangled with debates over border security and immigration policy. The current 95% price for a 7-day shutdown suggests traders see no immediate compromise. The high volume indicates informed money is betting on dysfunction, likely based on the public positions of key congressional leaders and the White House. A short sub-7-day shutdown would require a rapid, unexpected bipartisan deal that currently seems politically impossible.
The odds could shift rapidly only with concrete legislative action. The main catalyst is the passage and signing of a clean or compromise DHS appropriations bill. Any announced bipartisan framework from congressional negotiators would cause the "Yes" share price to fall from 95%. Conversely, if negotiations publicly break down or political rhetoric escalates, the price could move even closer to 100%, as traders price in a shutdown lasting weeks. Watch for procedural votes in the House and Senate, as failed votes would confirm the market's pessimistic outlook. The market resolves based on the enactment date of a funding bill, so mere announcements of a potential deal will not change the outcome.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market concerns the duration of a hypothetical shutdown of the United States Department of Homeland Security (DHS) beginning on February 14, 2026. A government shutdown occurs when Congress fails to pass or the President refuses to sign appropriations legislation funding government operations. For DHS, this would mean a lapse in funding for its component agencies, including Customs and Border Protection (CBP), Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), the Transportation Security Administration (TSA), and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). While essential personnel like border agents and TSA officers would continue working without pay, non-essential functions would halt, and many employees would be furloughed. The market resolves based on the specific number of calendar days the funding lapse persists, from the start date until the required funding bill is enacted into law. Interest in this market stems from the high-stakes nature of DHS operations for national security and border management, making its funding a perennial flashpoint in congressional budget negotiations. The specified 2026 date places this scenario in the context of a potential new presidential term and congressional session, where political dynamics could lead to protracted stalemates over immigration policy and security spending. Observers track such markets to gauge the probability of disruptive political events and their potential economic and operational impacts.
The modern era of frequent government shutdowns began after the passage of the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974, which clarified budget procedures. Since 1980, there have been over 20 funding gaps, with significant ones often involving homeland security or immigration disputes. The longest shutdown in U.S. history lasted 35 days from December 22, 2018, to January 25, 2019. That stalemate centered on funding for a southern border wall, directly involving DHS. During that period, approximately 40% of DHS's 240,000 employees were furloughed, while the majority, including TSA agents and Border Patrol, worked without pay. A previous DHS-specific shutdown was narrowly averted in February 2015 when Congress passed a one-week extension just hours before funding was set to expire, following a dispute over President Obama's immigration executive actions. These precedents show that DHS funding is often entangled with highly polarized immigration policy debates, making it vulnerable to becoming a bargaining chip in broader political negotiations. The threat of a shutdown is a recurring feature of the annual appropriations process, especially when control of government is divided between parties.
A DHS shutdown has immediate and wide-ranging consequences. Approximately 200,000 DHS employees would work without pay until funding is restored, causing financial strain for families and potentially leading to increased absenteeism among critical staff like TSA officers and Coast Guard personnel. This can result in longer airport security lines and reduced operational readiness. The halt of non-essential functions disrupts programs like E-Verify, which businesses use to check employee eligibility, and freezes federal grants to local fire departments. Prolonged shutdowns can damage morale within federal agencies and undermine public confidence in government's basic functions. Economically, the loss of spending by furloughed workers and the suspension of government contracts can have a localized dampening effect. Politically, extended shutdowns are typically viewed negatively by the public, and the party perceived as less willing to compromise often suffers in opinion polls, increasing pressure on leaders to find a resolution.
As of the time of this writing in early 2024, the Department of Homeland Security is operating under funded appropriations. The scenario for a shutdown beginning on February 14, 2026, is hypothetical and would depend on the failure of the 117th Congress (2025-2026) to pass, and the President to sign, funding legislation for DHS for that fiscal year. The political composition of that future Congress and the identity of the President elected in November 2024 will be the primary determinants of the likelihood and duration of such a shutdown. Recent history shows that divided government, particularly when different parties control the House, Senate, and Presidency, increases the risk of funding impasses.
TSA agents are considered "excepted" personnel. They are required to continue reporting to work to maintain airport security, but they do not receive paychecks until after the shutdown ends and funding is restored. Congress has historically passed legislation to provide back pay once the shutdown concludes.
A president cannot unilaterally cause a shutdown. However, by vetoing a funding bill passed by Congress, a president can trigger or extend a shutdown if Congress cannot override the veto. The shutdown is a result of a failure to agree between the executive and legislative branches.
Yes. Like TSA agents, U.S. Border Patrol agents are deemed essential and continue working without pay during a shutdown. Their law enforcement operations at ports of entry and between ports of entry continue, but administrative support and some training activities may be suspended.
A DHS shutdown occurs only if Congress fails to pass funding specifically for the Department of Homeland Security, while other agencies may remain open if their funding bills have been enacted. A full government shutdown happens when multiple or all appropriations bills lapse. DHS is often a focal point in partial shutdown scenarios.
A shutdown can end in a single day if Congress passes and the President signs the required funding legislation before the end of the calendar day on which it began. The market's resolution criteria count the start date (February 14) and the end date, so a same-day resolution would be a duration of one day.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Platform | Price |
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| Poly | 92% |
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| Poly | 9% |
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