California's 23rd congressional district (CA-23) covers a large portion of the Mojave Desert, including parts of Kern, Tulare, and Los Angeles counties. The district includes the cities of Lancaster and Palmdale in the Antelope Valley, as well as the desert communities of Ridgecrest and Rosamond. It is a Republican-leaning district that was created in the 2021 redistricting cycle. The current representative is Republican Jay Obernolte, who has held the seat since 2021. The district is considered reliably Republican, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of R+8 as of 2023. The 2024 election cycle will determine the representative for the term beginning in 2027. The primary election is scheduled for March 5, 2024, and the general election is on November 5, 2024. The district has a significant military and aerospace presence, with Edwards Air Force Base and Naval Air Weapons Station China Lake located within its boundaries. These installations are major employers and economic drivers for the region. The district also has a growing population, with the Antelope Valley experiencing suburban expansion from Los Angeles. The political dynamics of CA-23 are shaped by its rural and exurban character, with voters prioritizing issues like water rights, land use, and federal spending. The district has not elected a Democrat to the House since 2012, when it was a different configuration. The current race features Obernolte seeking re-election against Democratic challengers, though the district's partisan lean makes a Republican victory highly likely. The outcome of this race will affect the balance of power in the House, where Republicans hold a narrow majority as of 2024. The district is also affected by California's top-two primary system, which can sometimes lead to general election matchups between two candidates of the same party if no candidate reaches 50% in the primary. This system has occasionally produced competitive races in otherwise safe districts.

Historical Context

California's 23rd congressional district has existed in various forms since the 1970s. The current iteration was drawn after the 2020 census, when California lost a congressional seat due to slow population growth. The district was designed to consolidate Republican voters in the Mojave Desert region, making it one of the most Republican districts in the state. Before 2021, parts of the district were in CA-8, represented by Republican Paul Cook, who retired in 2020. Cook had held the seat since 2013, winning with 57% in 2018 and 62% in 2016. The district has not been represented by a Democrat since 2012, when the previous configuration was held by Democrat Lois Capps. The region's political history is tied to its economy. The Antelope Valley grew rapidly in the 1990s and 2000s as Los Angeles residents moved to cheaper housing. This growth brought new voters, but the area remained conservative due to its high proportion of military and aerospace workers. Edwards Air Force Base has been a key employer since the 1940s, and China Lake has been a naval weapons center since the 1940s. These installations have created a workforce that tends to support Republican candidates who emphasize defense spending. The 2021 redistricting process was contentious in California, with an independent commission drawing maps that were criticized by both parties. The final map for CA-23 was drawn to keep the Antelope Valley and desert communities together, avoiding splitting Kern County. This created a district that is 50% white, 35% Latino, and small percentages of Black and Asian voters. The district's population is about 760,000, with a median household income of $68,000, slightly below the national average. The district has a relatively low college education rate, with about 20% of adults holding a bachelor's degree or higher.