Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Israel Election: Shas vote share?

Name: Israel Election: Shas vote share?
End: 2026-10-27T23:59:00.000Z

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$2.96K

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Israel Election: Shas vote share?

Vol

$2.96K

Events

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markets · $2.96K

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Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

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Volume DistributionTotal: $2.96K

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will Shas win 6-7% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Shas win 6-7% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Poly	46%
Will Shas win less than 6% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Poly	32%
Will Shas win 8-9% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Poly	17%
Will Shas win 7-8% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Poly	12%
Will Shas win 9% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Poly	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

46%

Top Probability

$2.96K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Shas party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Shas's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Shas passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset. If Shas contests this

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Israel Election: Shas vote share?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 27, 2026 (17 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Shas party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.

The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Shas's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Shas passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.

If Shas contests this 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Shas party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.

The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Shas's party list"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $39.8K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.07)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Shas win less than 6% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 27, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 31.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Shas win 6-7% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 27, 2026): Vol $719
  DATA: [Yes: 45.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Shas win 7-8% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 27, 2026): Vol $386
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Shas win 8-9% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $347
  DATA: [Yes: 16.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.4% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Shas win 9% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $277
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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