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São Toméan presidential election winner?

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São Toméan presidential election winner?

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Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Toméan presidential election?

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Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Toméan presidential election?	Kalshi	92%
Will Nito D’Abreu win the 2026 São Toméan presidential election?	Kalshi	5%
Will Miques João Bonfim win the 2026 São Toméan presidential election?	Kalshi	3%
Will Eugénio Tiny win the 2026 São Toméan presidential election?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

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92%

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About This Event

in 2026 If X wins the 2026 São Toméan presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the election winner is officially declared or certified.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** São Toméan presidential election winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** in 2026

If X wins the 2026 São Toméan presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the election winner is officially declared or certified.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Nito D’Abreu wins the 2026 São Toméan presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the electi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Nito D’Abreu win the 2026 São Toméan presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 19, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Miques João Bonfim win the 2026 São Toméan presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 19, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Eugénio Tiny win the 2026 São Toméan presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 19, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Toméan presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 19, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 91.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

São Toméan presidential election winner?

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KALSHI

Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Toméan presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 91.5¢No 8.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Toméan presidential election?

If Carlos Vila Nova wins the 2026 São Toméan presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the el

KALSHI

Will Nito D’Abreu win the 2026 São Toméan presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Nito D’Abreu win the 2026 São Toméan presidential election?

If Nito D’Abreu wins the 2026 São Toméan presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the electi

KALSHI

Will Miques João Bonfim win the 2026 São Toméan presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.5¢No 97.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Miques João Bonfim win the 2026 São Toméan presidential election?

If Miques João Bonfim wins the 2026 São Toméan presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the

KALSHI

Will Eugénio Tiny win the 2026 São Toméan presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.5¢No 97.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Eugénio Tiny win the 2026 São Toméan presidential election?

If Eugénio Tiny wins the 2026 São Toméan presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the electi

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/tjkkaJ" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="São Toméan presidential election winner?"></iframe>

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Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Toméan presidential election?

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Events (1)

São Toméan presidential election winner?

Markets (4)

Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Toméan presidential election?

Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Toméan presidential election?

Will Nito D’Abreu win the 2026 São Toméan presidential election?

Will Nito D’Abreu win the 2026 São Toméan presidential election?

Will Miques João Bonfim win the 2026 São Toméan presidential election?

Will Miques João Bonfim win the 2026 São Toméan presidential election?

Will Eugénio Tiny win the 2026 São Toméan presidential election?

Will Eugénio Tiny win the 2026 São Toméan presidential election?

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Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Toméan presidential election?

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São Toméan presidential election winner?

Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Toméan presidential election?

Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Toméan presidential election?

Will Nito D’Abreu win the 2026 São Toméan presidential election?

Will Nito D’Abreu win the 2026 São Toméan presidential election?

Will Miques João Bonfim win the 2026 São Toméan presidential election?

Will Miques João Bonfim win the 2026 São Toméan presidential election?

Will Eugénio Tiny win the 2026 São Toméan presidential election?

Will Eugénio Tiny win the 2026 São Toméan presidential election?

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