$1.01M
1
7
$1.01M
1
7
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
Second-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on February 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the second-round turnout percentage, calculated as “Total votantes” divided by “Total inscritos” If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the election aren’t known by May 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based
Prediction markets estimate a roughly 19 in 20 chance that voter turnout in Portugal's 2026 presidential election runoff will fall between 50% and 52%. This is an extremely confident forecast, suggesting traders see a very narrow, specific range as almost certain. The market has attracted over $1 million in wagers, indicating strong interest and conviction in this outcome.
Two main factors explain this high-confidence prediction. First, Portugal has a consistent history of second-round presidential turnout. In the last runoff in 2021, turnout was 51.5%. The 2016 second round saw 51.1% turnout. This historical pattern creates a strong baseline expectation.
Second, Portuguese presidential elections typically generate moderate, stable public engagement. The president holds significant ceremonial and some reserve powers, but day-to-day governance rests with the prime minister and parliament. This means elections are important but rarely produce the surge or collapse in participation seen in high-stakes legislative votes. The current calm political environment, without a major crisis or polarizing figure on the horizon, supports a forecast of normal turnout levels.
The key date is the election itself, February 8, 2026. Official results confirming the turnout percentage will be the final signal. Before then, any major event that dramatically shifts public attention could affect the prediction. A significant national crisis, a major scandal involving a candidate, or an unexpected surge in campaign intensity might alter voter motivation. However, with the election over a year away, the market's current stability suggests no such shock is anticipated.
For elections in stable democracies with consistent voting patterns, prediction markets have a solid track record. They effectively aggregate historical data and current sentiment. The high trading volume on this question also suggests a well-informed consensus. The main limitation is the distant timeline. While current conditions point to normal turnout, much can change in a year. The 95% probability reflects high confidence in historical continuity, but it cannot account for truly unforeseen events that might disrupt Portugal's political routine.
Prediction markets on Polymarket show extreme confidence in a specific turnout range for Portugal's 2026 presidential election runoff. The contract "Will turnout be between 50% and 52%?" is trading at 95 cents, implying a 95% probability. This near-certainty indicates traders believe the final figure will land squarely in that two-point band. Other brackets, like 48-50% or 52-54%, trade below 5 cents combined. With over $1 million in total volume, this market has high liquidity, suggesting the consensus is well-funded and considered.
This precise pricing is anchored in Portugal's consistent second-round voting history. The 2021 presidential election runoff had a turnout of 51.5%. The 2016 runoff saw 51.0% participation. Traders are effectively betting on historical stability, viewing Portuguese voter behavior in presidential runoffs as highly predictable. The market sees no structural shift in electoral engagement that would push turnout outside the established 50-52% corridor observed over the last decade. This isn't a forecast of a specific event's outcome, but a bet on institutional and behavioral inertia.
The market's apparent certainty faces two primary risks. First, an unexpected political shock before February 2026 could mobilize or depress voters. A major scandal involving a frontrunner or a sudden constitutional crisis could disrupt typical patterns. Second, the resolution mechanism itself contains risk. The market resolves based on official "Total votantes" divided by "Total inscritos." Any technical delay in official result certification past the May 31, 2026 deadline would cause the market to resolve to the lowest bracket (below 48%), invalidating the current 95% bet. While unlikely, this contractual nuance is a known tail risk for traders.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on voter turnout for the second round of Portugal's 2026 presidential election, scheduled for February 8, 2026. The market resolves based on the official turnout percentage, calculated as the total number of voters ('Total votantes') divided by the total number of registered voters ('Total inscritos'). This specific electoral mechanism is triggered only if no candidate secures an absolute majority in the first round, which is common in Portugal's semi-presidential system. The outcome provides a direct measure of public engagement with the presidency, an office with significant powers including the ability to dissolve parliament, veto legislation, and appoint the prime minister. Interest in this metric stems from its role as a barometer of political stability and democratic health in Portugal. Analysts watch turnout closely because significant fluctuations can signal public satisfaction or discontent with the political establishment, influence the perceived legitimacy of the elected president, and impact the balance of power between the presidency and the government. The 2026 election follows a period of political uncertainty, including early parliamentary elections, making presidential voter engagement a critical indicator of the country's political trajectory.
Portugal has held direct presidential elections since the 1976 constitution following the Carnation Revolution. A second round, however, is a relatively rare event. It has only occurred three times in the country's democratic history: in 1986 (Mário Soares vs. Diogo Freitas do Amaral), 2011 (Aníbal Cavaco Silva vs. Manuel Alegre), and 2016 (Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa vs. António Sampaio da Nóvoa). The 1986 second round saw a turnout of 75.4%, the highest for any second round. The 2011 second round had a turnout of 46.5%, while the 2016 second round saw 48.7% of registered voters participate. These figures are consistently lower than first-round turnout, which has ranged from 46.5% (2021) to 75.6% (1976). The requirement for a second round is triggered when no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote in the first round. Historically, second rounds have been characterized by a runoff between the top two first-round finishers, often leading to a clearer ideological contest and strategic voting. The decline in turnout from the first to the second round is a persistent pattern, reflecting voter fatigue or a perceived lack of competitiveness once frontrunners are established.
Turnout in a presidential second round is a key measure of democratic legitimacy. A high participation rate strengthens the president's mandate to use their constitutional powers, such as vetoing legislation or influencing foreign policy. Conversely, low turnout can weaken the president's authority and create a perception of public disengagement, potentially emboldening political opponents in the parliament. The result also has practical implications for governance. A president elected with robust turnout may feel more confident in acting as a check on the government, especially in periods of 'cohabitation' where the president and prime minister are from different parties. This dynamic was seen during the administrations of President Cavaco Silva and Socialist Prime Minister José Sócrates. For financial markets and international observers, stable, high participation signals political predictability, which is favorable for investment. A low or declining turnout may be interpreted as public apathy or disillusionment, raising questions about the long-term stability of Portugal's political system.
The political landscape is in flux following the March 2024 legislative elections, which resulted in a center-right Democratic Alliance (AD) government under Prime Minister Luís Montenegro. No clear frontrunner for the presidency had emerged as of late 2024, with potential candidates from the AD, Socialist Party, and Chega all considering runs. The official candidate declaration period will open in late 2025. Electoral authorities have begun preliminary logistical planning for the February 8, 2026 date. Political commentators are debating whether the fragmentation of parliament and the rise of Chega will lead to a competitive first round, making a second round more likely, or if a unifying figure will emerge to secure an outright victory.
Turnout is officially calculated by the National Election Commission (CNE) as the total number of voters who cast a valid or blank ballot ('Total votantes') divided by the total number of citizens registered on the electoral roll ('Total inscritos'). This percentage is published for each round of voting.
The last presidential second round was in 2016, when Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa defeated António Sampaio da Nóvoa. The turnout for that second round was 48.7%.
If no candidate receives an absolute majority (more than 50%) of the valid votes in the first round, a second round is held two weeks later. Only the two candidates who received the most votes in the first round are eligible to compete in the runoff.
The president is the head of state and commander-in-chief. Key powers include the ability to dissolve the Assembly of the Republic, veto legislation, appoint the prime minister, and represent Portugal in international affairs. The president's influence is often exercised through moral authority and public commentary.
Turnout often drops due to voter fatigue from a second election in quick succession, a perception that the outcome is predictable after the first round, or dissatisfaction with the choice between the two remaining candidates.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
7 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 97% |
| Poly | 2% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/tkzSTa" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Turnout in Portugal Presidential Election Second Round"></iframe>