GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsCompanies

When will Apple release the iPhone 18?

Name: When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$3.50M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

When will Apple release the iPhone 18?

Vol

$3.50M

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $191.36K

Kalshi

markets · $3.31M

Price Spread

95.2%avg

max 95.2%

Arbitrage

of 1 cross-platform

Calculate

Volume DistributionTotal: $3.50M

95%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?

Arbitrage

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(1)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?ARB	100%	5%	95%

Single-Platform Markets(4)

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

100%

Top Probability

$3.50M

Volume

Markets

77.9%

Price Gap

About This Event

iPhone 18 If Apple Inc. releases iPhone 18 to the public before X 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 6, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
**Category:** Companies | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** iPhone 18

If Apple Inc. releases iPhone 18 to the public before X 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between i"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.50M
* **Total Liquidity:** $20.7K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 168.80)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (1 mkts) vs Kalshi (5 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $191.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.3% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $1.07M
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 95.2% spread between platforms.

### 2. Will Apple Inc. release iPhone 18 before Apr 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 8, 2027): Vol $9.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 77.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 22.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Apple Inc. release iPhone 18 before Mar 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 8, 2027): Vol $24.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Apple Inc. release iPhone 18 before Feb 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 8, 2027): Vol $26.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Apple Inc. release iPhone 18 before Oct 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 8, 2026): Vol $2.18M
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Rules

Different

Timing

Similar

KALSHICompanies

When will Apple release the iPhone 18?

Volume$3.31M

Markets5

POLYMARKETTech

Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in

Volume$191.36K

Markets1

5 of 5

Sort:

KALSHI

Will Apple Inc. release iPhone 18 before Apr 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 77.5¢No 22.5¢

KALSHITech

Will Apple Inc. release iPhone 18 before Apr 1, 2027?

If Apple Inc. releases iPhone 18 to the public before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Arbitrage Opportunity: 95.2% difference

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average52.1%

Polymarket+95.2%

99.7%

Kalshi

4.5%

Difference:95.2% Arbitrage!

Polymarket higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 99.7¢No 0.3¢

KKalshi

Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢

POLYMARKETTech

Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?

Will Apple Inc. release iPhone 18 before Jan 1, 2027?

If Apple Inc. releases iPhone 18 to the public before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will Apple Inc. release iPhone 18 before Mar 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 18.5¢No 81.5¢

KALSHITech

Will Apple Inc. release iPhone 18 before Mar 1, 2027?

If Apple Inc. releases iPhone 18 to the public before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will Apple Inc. release iPhone 18 before Feb 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 7.0¢No 93.0¢

KALSHITech

Will Apple Inc. release iPhone 18 before Feb 1, 2027?

If Apple Inc. releases iPhone 18 to the public before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will Apple Inc. release iPhone 18 before Oct 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 1.5¢No 98.5¢

KALSHITech

CLOSING SOON

Will Apple Inc. release iPhone 18 before Oct 1, 2026?

If Apple Inc. releases iPhone 18 to the public before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

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Discussion

0 Comments

Next Market Closes

87d 2h remaining

Jan 01, 2027 4:59 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

100¢

Polymarket

5¢

Kalshi

95¢ price gap

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/tmBFh-" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="When will Apple release the iPhone 18?"></iframe>

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When will Apple release the iPhone 18?