Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?

Name: Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?
End: 2028-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$75.06K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?

Vol

$75.06K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $75.06K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $75.06K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

13 markets tracked

Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(13)

Market	Platform	Price
Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028?	Poly	69%
Will Hendrik Wüst be the next Chancellor of Germany?	Poly	14%
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany?	Poly	4%
Will Boris Pistorius be the next Chancellor of Germany?	Poly	4%
Will Markus Söder be the next Chancellor of Germany?	Poly	3%
Will Lars Klingbeil be the next Chancellor of Germany?	Poly	1%
Will Carsten Linnemann be the next Chancellor of Germany?	Poly	0%
Will Felix Banaszak be the next Chancellor of Germany?	Poly	0%
Will Jens Spahn be the next Chancellor of Germany?	Poly	0%
Will Tino Chrupalla be the next Chancellor of Germany?	Poly	0%
Will Katharina Dröge be the next Chancellor of Germany?	Poly	0%
Will Heidi Reichinnek be the next Chancellor of Germany?	Poly	0%
Will Sahra Wagenknecht be the next Chancellor of Germany?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

69%

Top Probability

$75.06K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Ch

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2028 (447 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025.

This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.

To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Ch

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025.

This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.

To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by th"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $75.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $212.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.35)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Markus Söder be the next Chancellor of Germany?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $3.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Jens Spahn be the next Chancellor of Germany?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $529
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Hendrik Wüst be the next Chancellor of Germany?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $8.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Carsten Linnemann be the next Chancellor of Germany?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $829
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Tino Chrupalla be the next Chancellor of Germany?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $653
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Lars Klingbeil be the next Chancellor of Germany?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Boris Pistorius be the next Chancellor of Germany?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Felix Banaszak be the next Chancellor of Germany?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Katharina Dröge be the next Chancellor of Germany?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $728
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Heidi Reichinnek be the next Chancellor of Germany?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $874
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Sahra Wagenknecht be the next Chancellor of Germany?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $784
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $52.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 68.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 31.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETWorld