Will Trump recognize Taiwan? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Will Trump recognize Taiwan?

Total Volume

$10.82K

Events

Markets

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Will Trump recognize Taiwan?

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $10.82K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $10.82K

100%

Kalshi leads

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1 market tracked

Will Trump recognize Somaliland?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Trump recognize Somaliland?	Kalshi	18%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

18%

Top Probability

$10.82K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

During Trump's term If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029, the market resolves to Yes. This could include: opening a U.S. embassy with the Republic of China, accepting an ambassador from the Republic of China, including the entity as an independent country in U.S. Department of State country lists, or signing a formal treaty, bilateral agreement,

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Trump recognize Taiwan?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** During Trump's term

If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029, the market resolves to Yes. This could include: opening a U.S. embassy with the Republic of China, accepting an ambassador from the Republic of China, including the entity as an independent country in U.S. Department of State country lists, or signing a formal treaty, bilateral agreement,

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This could include: opening a U.S. embassy with the Republic of C"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $10.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.13M
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.01)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Trump recognize Somaliland?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $10.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

18¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/ts6u1-" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will Trump recognize Taiwan?"></iframe>

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Will Trump recognize Taiwan?

Will Trump recognize Taiwan?

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Will Trump recognize Somaliland?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)