$4.17K
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11
$4.17K
1
11
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In 2026 If X is the #2 most streamed Album on Spotify's 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
The prediction market currently assigns a low 24% probability to KPop Demon Hunters achieving the #2 spot on Spotify's 2026 Wrapped global album chart. This price indicates the market views this outcome as unlikely, though not impossible. With only $4,000 in total volume across related markets, liquidity is thin, suggesting this is a speculative niche market without strong consensus.
The primary factor suppressing the odds is the sheer competitiveness of the global streaming landscape. To reach the #2 position globally, an album typically requires billions of streams from a massive, sustained campaign. KPop Demon Hunters, while potentially a known entity in specific fan communities, lacks the established, record-breaking commercial footprint of acts like Taylor Swift, Bad Bunny, or BTS, whose albums historically dominate these year-end lists. Furthermore, the market is pricing in the uncertainty of the group's release schedule and promotional strategy for 2026, which are currently unknown.
Another critical factor is the historical precedent of Spotify's Wrapped charts. They are heavily influenced by mainstream pop, hip-hop, and Latin music, with K-pop entries being rare and typically reserved for the genre's absolute top tier. The market is effectively questioning whether KPop Demon Hunters can ascend to that elite global level within the next two years.
The odds would shift dramatically with a confirmed major-label partnership or a strategic global rollout plan for the group's 2026 album. A surprise viral single or album in late 2025 that carries momentum into 2026 would also force a major reevaluation. Conversely, the odds could fall further if a competing major artist, like Taylor Swift, announces a confirmed album release for 2026, cementing their position as a chart favorite. The most significant catalyst will be the group's first major single or album release in 2025, which will provide concrete data on their streaming trajectory and potential for global scale.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic focuses on identifying which album will rank as the second most-streamed album globally on Spotify's 2026 Wrapped year-end chart. Spotify Wrapped is an annual year-end summary released each December that reveals the platform's most popular music, artists, and albums based on global streaming data from January 1 to October 31 of that year. The #2 album position represents a significant achievement in the streaming era, indicating massive global consumption just below the year's ultimate chart-topper. This market resolves to 'Yes' if a specific, predetermined album (denoted as 'X') achieves this position when the official 2026 chart is published. Interest in this topic stems from the music industry's intense focus on streaming performance as the primary metric for commercial success, the cultural cachet associated with Spotify Wrapped placements, and the financial implications for artists, labels, and publishers tied to such high-profile visibility. Analysts and fans closely watch these year-end rankings as a barometer of shifting musical tastes, marketing campaign effectiveness, and the enduring power of superstar artists versus viral, algorithm-driven phenomena.
Spotify Wrapped was first launched in 2016 as a personalized user experience, with the public, global charts for top artists and songs introduced in 2020. The release of these year-end rankings has since become a major cultural event, generating significant media coverage and social media discussion. Historically, the #1 and #2 album positions have been fiercely contested by a small group of global superstars. In 2020, the #2 album globally was 'After Hours' by The Weeknd. In 2021, 'Justice' by Justin Bieber held the spot. The 2022 #2 album was 'Un Verano Sin Ti' by Bad Bunny, and in 2023, it was 'SOS' by SZA. This historical data shows that the position is typically claimed by established, A-list artists with dedicated global fanbases, though occasional breakthroughs by artists from non-English markets occur. The cutoff date for streaming data, historically around October 31, means late-year album releases face a significant disadvantage unless they achieve explosive, immediate viral success.
Securing the #2 album spot on Spotify's global Wrapped chart carries substantial economic and cultural weight. For the artist and their record label, it translates to tens of millions of dollars in streaming royalties and significantly strengthens negotiating power for future deals, touring revenue, and brand partnerships. The placement serves as powerful, data-validated marketing, cementing an artist's status in the industry and often triggering a 'chart effect' that boosts streams of their entire catalog. Culturally, these year-end rankings shape the historical narrative of a given year in music, influencing critic lists, award show considerations, and public perception of an artist's legacy. For Spotify, the Wrapped campaign is a crucial user engagement and retention tool, driving app usage and social media buzz that reinforces its position as the industry's central streaming platform. The competition for these top spots also highlights the ongoing tension between major-label marketing power and the potential for organic, algorithm-driven breakthroughs.
As of late 2024, the landscape for the 2026 chart is highly speculative but shaped by known release cycles and artist patterns. Major artists like Taylor Swift and Drake are expected to release new studio albums within the next two years as part of their typical multi-album cycles. The success of recent global hits from artists like Bad Bunny and K-pop groups indicates continued strength for non-English language music on the platform. Spotify continues to refine its algorithm and playlist ecosystem, which will influence which songs and albums gain momentum. Industry analysts are monitoring announcement timelines for major projects, as a release in early-to-mid 2026 would be optimally timed to accumulate streams within the Wrapped data window.
Spotify Wrapped is typically released in the first week of December each year. The 2026 edition, summarizing data from January 1 to approximately October 31, 2026, will likely be unveiled in early December 2026.
Spotify counts a 'stream' when a user intentionally plays a song for more than 30 seconds. For the global Wrapped charts, the company aggregates these streams from all its users worldwide during the eligible period, which has historically been from January 1 to October 31 of that year.
It is highly unlikely. Because the data collection period typically ends on October 31, an album released in November would have only a few weeks to accumulate streams, putting it at a severe disadvantage compared to albums released earlier in the year.
Yes. In 2022, the soundtrack for Disney's 'Encanto' was a major streaming force and appeared on many year-end lists, demonstrating that film and television music can achieve massive streaming success and compete for top chart positions.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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11 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will KPop Demon Hunters be the #2 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 24% |
Will DeBi TiRAR MÁs FOToS be the #2 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 12% |
Will DINASTÍA be the #2 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 6% |
Will I’m The Problem be the #2 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 3% |
Will SOS Deluxe: LANA be the #2 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 2% |
Will Short n’ Sweet be the #2 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 2% |
Will MAYHEM be the #2 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 2% |
Will You’ll Be Alright, Kid be the #2 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 2% |
Will Un Verano Sin Ti be the #2 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 2% |
Will HIT ME HARD AND SOFT be the #2 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 2% |
Will GNX be the #2 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 2% |
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