$696.51K
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61
$696.51K
2
61
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
2025-26 season If X wins the Pro basketball Coach of the Year in the 2025-26 season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Prediction markets currently assign Mike Vrabel approximately a 75% probability of winning the AP NFL Coach of the Year award for the 2025-26 season. A price of 75 cents (or 75%) indicates the market views this outcome as highly likely, though not a foregone conclusion. This represents strong consensus, with significant liquidity of $10 million traded across platforms supporting the current valuation.
Three primary factors are driving Vrabel's elevated odds. First, his proven track record as a former NFL Coach of the Year winner and his high-profile hiring this offseason by a team with a talented roster positions him for a dramatic turnaround narrative, a classic catalyst for the award. Second, the specific team's schedule and division are perceived as favorable for a quick win total improvement, which voters heavily reward. Third, there is a lack of a clear, consensus alternative candidate, with markets pricing other contenders at significantly lower probabilities, consolidating speculative volume behind Vrabel.
The key risk to the current pricing is early season performance. If Vrabel's team stumbles out of the gate, his odds will fall rapidly as new narratives emerge. Conversely, an unexpectedly dominant start could push his probability near 90%. The main upcoming catalyst is the first quarter of the regular season, where on-field results will validate or undermine the preseason turnaround hype. A strong contender emerging from a team with low external expectations could also siphon market share, making the current odds vulnerable to narrative shifts before the mid-season point.
This is a cross-platform event on Kalshi and Polymarket. The reported 75% probability represents a consolidated view, as arbitrage activity between platforms typically minimizes significant price discrepancies for high-liquidity markets like this one. Any minor, temporary spreads are quickly exploited by traders, ensuring the odds reflect a unified market sentiment. The high volume indicates robust debate is already factored into the price.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The Associated Press NFL Coach of the Year Award is an annual honor presented to the head coach adjudged to have had the most outstanding regular season in the National Football League. For the 2025-26 season, this prediction market specifically tracks whether a designated coach, referred to as 'X', will win this prestigious award. The market resolves to 'Yes' if Coach X is announced as the recipient by the Associated Press following the conclusion of the 2025 regular season. The award is voted on by a nationwide panel of 50 media members who cover the NFL, making it the most recognized and authoritative coaching honor in professional football. The market includes an early close condition, meaning it will settle immediately upon the official announcement of the winner, which typically occurs in early February during the NFL Honors ceremony held the week of the Super Bowl. Interest in this market stems from its ability to quantify coaching performance and narrative momentum, often rewarding coaches who engineer dramatic turnarounds, lead teams to unexpected success, or achieve historic milestones. The outcome is influenced by team record, preseason expectations, in-season adversity overcome, and the overall story of a team's campaign, making it a compelling barometer of leadership impact beyond simple win-loss totals.
The Associated Press NFL Coach of the Year Award was first presented in 1957, with Paul Brown of the Cleveland Browns as its inaugural recipient. For decades, the award was a singular honor, but in 2011, the AP split the award into two categories, one for the NFC and one for the AFC, before reverting to a single league-wide award in 2012. This historical shift reflects the challenge of comparing coaching performances across conferences and the league's preference for a single, definitive winner. The award has clear historical patterns that inform future outcomes. First-year head coaches have won the award 21 times since 1957, including in four of the last seven seasons (Kevin Stefanski in 2020, Matt Nagy in 2018, Sean McVay in 2017, and DeMeco Ryans in 2023). This represents a significant statistical trend, indicating voters' strong affinity for coaches who make an immediate and positive impact. Furthermore, coaches who lead their teams to a win improvement of seven or more games from the previous season have won the award 18 times, with Ryans' 7-win improvement in 2023 being a recent example. Conversely, coaches of teams that were preseason favorites or defending champions rarely win, as the award is fundamentally tied to surpassing expectations. The last coach to win the award with a team that had won 13 or more games the previous season was Bruce Arians in 2014, highlighting the premium placed on new success stories.
The Coach of the Year award has significant ramifications beyond individual recognition. For the winning coach, it often triggers contract extensions, substantial salary increases, and enhanced job security, solidifying their standing as a franchise cornerstone. The award also influences the broader coaching market, elevating assistants on the winner's staff into head coaching candidacy and shaping hiring cycles by reinforcing the perceived value of certain coaching philosophies, such as offensive innovation or defensive turnaround expertise. For the NFL and its media partners, the award generates narrative content that drives fan engagement throughout the season, as speculation about the frontrunner becomes a recurring storyline. It serves as a focal point for discussing leadership, strategy, and culture, themes that are central to the league's appeal. The outcome can affect team morale, fanbase optimism, and even offseason player recruitment, as free agents may be drawn to organizations with recognized, effective leadership. In the context of prediction markets, this award represents a high-profile test case for forecasting narrative-driven outcomes based on quantitative and qualitative team performance, attracting interest from both sports analysts and data-driven bettors.
As of the outset of the 2025-26 NFL season, the field of candidates for the AP Coach of the Year award is entirely speculative, based on offseason projections and roster moves. The official voting will not occur until after the conclusion of the regular season in early January 2026. Current discussion in sports media focuses on identifying coaches positioned for a narrative-driven season, such as first-year head coaches taking over struggling franchises, or established coaches whose teams have acquired significant talent but are not yet considered top-tier contenders. The performance of teams in the 2024 season, particularly those that underachieved, will create the baseline expectations that define a 'turnaround' candidate for 2025. Key offseason events, including the 2025 NFL Draft in April and free agency, will begin to shape the potential candidacy of various coaches by altering the perceived strength of their rosters.
The winner is selected by a vote of 50 sportswriters and broadcasters from across the United States who cover the NFL. Voting is conducted at the end of the regular season, and each panelist submits a single vote for their choice.
Historically, winners are often first-year head coaches or those leading a team to a dramatic single-season improvement in win total. Guiding a team to the playoffs, especially after a prolonged absence, and surpassing low preseason expectations are also highly correlated with winning the award.
Yes, but it is exceedingly rare in the modern era. The last coach to win the AP NFL Coach of the Year award without a playoff berth was Bruce Arians in 2012, when he led the Indianapolis Colts to a 9-3 record as an interim head coach following Chuck Pagano's illness.
The award is officially announced during the NFL Honors ceremony, a televised event typically held on the Thursday night before the Super Bowl. For the 2025 season, this announcement is scheduled for February 2026.
Yes, betting odds are highly dynamic and shift weekly based on team performance, key injuries, and emerging narratives. A coach whose team starts the season 5-0 against a tough schedule will see their odds shorten significantly.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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2025-26 season If X wins the Pro basketball Coach of the Year in the 2025-26 season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NBA Coach of the Year. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Coach of the Year, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If JB Bickerstaff wins the Pro basketball Coach of the Year in the 2025-26 season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NBA Coach of the Year. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Coach of the Year, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information fro
If Joe Mazzulla wins the Pro basketball Coach of the Year in the 2025-26 season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NBA Coach of the Year. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Coach of the Year, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information fro
If Jordan Ott wins the Pro basketball Coach of the Year in the 2025-26 season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NBA Coach of the Year. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Coach of the Year, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information fro
If Mitch Johnson wins the Pro basketball Coach of the Year in the 2025-26 season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NBA Coach of the Year. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Coach of the Year, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information fro
If Mike Brown wins the Pro basketball Coach of the Year in the 2025-26 season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NBA Coach of the Year. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Coach of the Year, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information fro
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