Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Fed funds rate at end of 2033

Total Volume

$4.46K

Events

Markets

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Fed funds rate at end of 2033

Vol

$4.46K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $4.46K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

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Volume DistributionTotal: $4.46K

100%

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21 markets tracked

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 1.00%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(21)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 1.00%?	Kalshi	82%
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 1.50%?	Kalshi	79%
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 1.25%?	Kalshi	76%
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 2.25%?	Kalshi	75%
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 2.00%?	Kalshi	67%
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 3.25%?	Kalshi	66%
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 2.50%?	Kalshi	65%
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 1.75%?	Kalshi	64%
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 2.75%?	Kalshi	56%
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 3.00%?	Kalshi	56%
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 4.50%?	Kalshi	44%
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 4.25%?	Kalshi	44%
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 3.75%?	Kalshi	44%
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 3.50%?	Kalshi	44%
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 4.00%?	Kalshi	43%
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 5.00%?	Kalshi	40%
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 4.75%?	Kalshi	38%
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 5.75%?	Kalshi	35%
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 5.25%?	Kalshi	28%
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 5.50%?	Kalshi	28%
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 6.00%?	Kalshi	12%

AI Analysis

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82%

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$4.46K

Volume

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About This Event

December 31, 2033 If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above X then the market resolves to Yes. If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than a target range, that target rate will be used. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Fed funds rate at end of 2033
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** December 31, 2033

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above X then the market resolves to Yes. If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than a target range, that target rate will be used. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 6.00%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $4.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 6.00%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2034): Vol $66
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 5.75%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2034): Vol $315
  DATA: [Yes: 34.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 5.50%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2034): Vol $68
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 5.25%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2034): Vol $168
  DATA: [Yes: 28.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 5.00%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2034): Vol $248
  DATA: [Yes: 39.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 4.75%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2034): Vol $9
  DATA: [Yes: 37.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 4.50%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2034): Vol $85
  DATA: [Yes: 44.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 4.25%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2034): Vol $286
  DATA: [Yes: 44.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 4.00%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2034): Vol $38
  DATA: [Yes: 43.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 3.75%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2034): Vol $65
  DATA: [Yes: 44.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 3.50%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2034): Vol $163
  DATA: [Yes: 44.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 3.25%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2034): Vol $63
  DATA: [Yes: 65.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 34.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 3.00%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2034): Vol $136
  DATA: [Yes: 55.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 44.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 2.75%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2034): Vol $2
  DATA: [Yes: 56.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 44.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 2.50%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2034): Vol $126
  DATA: [Yes: 64.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 35.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 2.25%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2034): Vol $141
  DATA: [Yes: 74.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 25.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 2.00%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2034): Vol $192
  DATA: [Yes: 66.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 33.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 1.75%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2034): Vol $194
  DATA: [Yes: 63.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 36.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 1.50%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2034): Vol $174
  DATA: [Yes: 78.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 21.5% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 1.25%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2034): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 75.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 24.5% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 1.00%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2034): Vol $790
  DATA: [Yes: 82.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 18.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Fed funds rate at end of 2033

Volume$4.46K

Markets21

21 of 21

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KALSHI

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 1.00%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 82.0¢No 18.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 1.00%?

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 1.00%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than

KALSHI

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 1.50%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 78.5¢No 21.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 1.50%?

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 1.50%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than

KALSHI

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 1.25%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 75.5¢No 24.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 1.25%?

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 1.25%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than

KALSHI

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 2.25%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 74.5¢No 25.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 2.25%?

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 2.25%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than

KALSHI

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 2.00%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 66.5¢No 33.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 2.00%?

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 2.00%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than

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Fed funds rate at end of 2033

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Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 1.00%?

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Events (1)

Fed funds rate at end of 2033

Markets (21)

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 1.00%?

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 1.00%?

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 1.50%?

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 1.50%?

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 1.25%?

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 1.25%?

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 2.25%?

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 2.25%?

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 2.00%?

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 2.00%?

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Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 1.00%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Fed funds rate at end of 2033

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 1.00%?

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 1.00%?

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 1.50%?

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 1.50%?

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 1.25%?

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 1.25%?

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 2.25%?

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 2.25%?

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 2.00%?

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 2.00%?

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