Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
2%
Top Probability
$12.27K
Volume
1
Markets
1
Platforms
About This Event
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic asks whether OpenAI's ChatGPT will experience a full service outage before March 31. A 'Full Outage' is defined as an incident where the ChatGPT service becomes completely unavailable to users, as officially recorded on OpenAI's status page. The resolution depends solely on incidents where ChatGPT is explicitly listed as an 'Affected component.' Incidents affecting only APIs, the Sora video model, or other OpenAI services will not trigger a 'Yes' resolution. This market reflects growing interest in the operational reliability of a foundational AI service used by over 100 million weekly users. ChatGPT's availability directly impacts productivity, education, and business operations globally. Recent high-profile outages have drawn attention to the systemic challenges of maintaining uptime for complex, large-scale AI systems. The market allows participants to speculate on the probability of a major disruption, based on historical patterns, current infrastructure pressures, and OpenAI's track record. Interest stems from ChatGPT's central role in the AI ecosystem and the significant consequences any prolonged downtime would create for its vast user base.
Historical Context
ChatGPT has experienced several significant outages since its public launch in November 2022, establishing a pattern of vulnerability during periods of high demand or technical transition. The most severe incident occurred on November 8, 2023, when a 'major outage' rendered ChatGPT and its API services completely unavailable for approximately 90 minutes. OpenAI's status page documented the event as a 'critical systems failure.' Another major outage happened on March 20, 2023, affecting all ChatGPT services for over two hours due to a database migration issue. In February 2024, a series of partial and full outages were linked to targeted Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks, highlighting new security threats to AI service availability. These historical incidents typically correlate with major product updates, such as the release of GPT-4 Turbo in November 2023, or periods of unprecedented user traffic. The service's architecture has evolved from a research preview to a global production platform, but scaling challenges persist. Each past outage has prompted post-mortem analyses and infrastructure improvements, yet the fundamental tension between rapid feature deployment and system stability remains.
Why It Matters
ChatGPT's reliability has substantial economic implications. Businesses increasingly integrate the AI into workflows, customer service, and content creation. A full outage disrupts these operations, potentially costing companies revenue and productivity. For individual users, especially students and professionals, downtime interrupts learning, research, and task completion. The social impact is also significant, as millions have come to depend on ChatGPT for daily information retrieval, creative assistance, and problem-solving. A major outage erodes trust in AI as a dependable tool and could slow adoption across sectors. Downstream consequences include increased scrutiny of OpenAI's infrastructure management and potential regulatory attention on critical digital service resilience. Competitors may capitalize on downtime to attract users, shifting market dynamics. For developers building on OpenAI's platform, outages create cascading failures in their own applications, multiplying the economic damage.
Current Status
As of early 2024, ChatGPT's service status has been variable. The platform experienced notable partial degradations and brief full outages in February, which OpenAI attributed to abnormal traffic patterns consistent with DDoS attacks. OpenAI's status page shows ongoing incidents affecting specific features, though no full platform outage has been recorded in recent weeks. The company continues to roll out new capabilities, including memory features and a desktop application, which introduce new complexity to the system. Infrastructure scaling efforts are ongoing to accommodate both free and paid ChatGPT Plus users, who now number in the millions.
Frequently Asked Questions
What counts as a full outage for ChatGPT?
A full outage is an incident where the core ChatGPT web interface and mobile apps become completely inaccessible or non-functional for all users, as officially classified on OpenAI's status page. Partial degradation, slow performance, or issues only with specific features do not qualify.
How often does ChatGPT go down?
Significant outages occur several times per year, with numerous smaller incidents of partial degradation. Major complete outages, like those in November 2023 and March 2023, have lasted from 90 minutes to over two hours.
What causes ChatGPT outages?
Primary causes include database failures during migrations, overwhelming traffic surges that exceed capacity, backend service failures in OpenAI's cloud infrastructure, and, more recently, targeted DDoS attacks aimed at disrupting service.
Does ChatGPT Plus get priority during outages?
OpenAI states that paying ChatGPT Plus subscribers receive priority access during periods of high demand, but during a full system-wide outage, all access tiers are typically affected equally as core infrastructure fails.
Where does OpenAI report outages officially?
OpenAI maintains a public status page at status.openai.com that lists all ongoing incidents, their severity, affected components like ChatGPT, and provides updates on resolution progress. This is the definitive source for outage confirmation.
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Updated Mar 27, 2026
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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