Name: Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

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Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...? | PredictPedia

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2 markets tracked

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?	Poly	94%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?	Poly	46%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?
**Category:** Science | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 31, 2026 (75 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Ear"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $67.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $8.4K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 8.06)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $56.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 46.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $10.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 94.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

74d 15h remaining

Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM

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Average Yes Price

70¢

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Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?

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Events (1)

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?

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Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?

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Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?

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Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?

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