Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

How many Israeli elections until a government forms?

Total Volume

$660.31

Events

Markets

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How many Israeli elections until a government forms?

Vol

$660.31

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $660.31

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $660.31

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 1 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 1 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?	Kalshi	71%
Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 2 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?	Kalshi	21%
Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 3 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?	Kalshi	7%
Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 4 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?	Kalshi	4%
Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be at least 5 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

71%

Top Probability

$660.31

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Through Oct 27, 2030 at latest If the number of Israeli Knesset elections held is exactly X from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first, then the market resolves to Yes. Count nationwide Knesset elections actually held, beginning with the next election after issuance. Each election counts once, including repeat elections held before a new government is formed. Scheduled or cancelled elections, local elections, and

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many Israeli elections until a government forms?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Through Oct 27, 2030 at latest

If the number of Israeli Knesset elections held is exactly X from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first, then the market resolves to Yes. Count nationwide Knesset elections actually held, beginning with the next election after issuance. Each election counts once, including repeat elections held before a new government is formed. Scheduled or cancelled elections, local elections, and

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the number of Israeli Knesset elections held is exactly 4 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Count nationwide Knesset elections actually held, beginning wi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $660
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 4 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 26, 2031): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 3 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 26, 2031): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 2 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 26, 2031): Vol $195
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 1 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 26, 2031): Vol $465
  DATA: [Yes: 71.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be at least 5 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 26, 2031): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

How many Israeli elections until a government forms?

Volume$660.31

Markets5

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KALSHI

Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 1 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 71.0¢No 29.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 1 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?

If the number of Israeli Knesset elections held is exactly 1 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Count nationwide Knesset elections actually held, beginning wi

KALSHI

Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 2 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 20.5¢No 79.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 2 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?

If the number of Israeli Knesset elections held is exactly 2 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Count nationwide Knesset elections actually held, beginning wi

KALSHI

Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 3 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 7.0¢No 93.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 3 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?

If the number of Israeli Knesset elections held is exactly 3 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Count nationwide Knesset elections actually held, beginning wi

KALSHI

Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 4 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 4 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?

If the number of Israeli Knesset elections held is exactly 4 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Count nationwide Knesset elections actually held, beginning wi

KALSHI

Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be at least 5 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.0¢No 97.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be at least 5 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?

If the number of Israeli Knesset elections held is at least 5 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Count nationwide Knesset elections actually held, beginning w

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How many Israeli elections until a government forms?

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Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 1 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

How many Israeli elections until a government forms?

Markets (5)

Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 1 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?

Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 1 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?

Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 2 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?

Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 2 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?

Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 3 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?

Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 3 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?

Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 4 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?

Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 4 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?

Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be at least 5 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?

Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be at least 5 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?

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Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 1 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How many Israeli elections until a government forms?

Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 1 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?

Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 1 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?

Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 2 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?

Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 2 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?

Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 3 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?

Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 3 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?

Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 4 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?

Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 4 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?

Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be at least 5 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?

Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be at least 5 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?

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