This prediction market asks whether national elections for Ukraine's parliament (Verkhovna Rada) or presidency will be held between February 12 and December 31, 2025. The question arises because Ukraine has been under martial law since Russia's full-scale invasion began on February 24, 2022. Under Ukrainian law, elections cannot be held during martial law, which has been extended multiple times. The current extension runs through February 7, 2025. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's term was originally set to expire in May 2024, but elections were postponed due to the war. The market will resolve to 'Yes' only if elections actually occur within the specified dates, not just if they are scheduled. The constitutional and legal framework for elections in Ukraine is clear: Article 83 of the Constitution states that the Verkhovna Rada's powers continue until the first meeting of a newly elected parliament after martial law ends. Similarly, Article 103 says the president serves until a newly elected president takes office. The Law on the Legal Regime of Martial Law, Article 19, explicitly prohibits holding elections during martial law. Any change to this would require amendments to the Constitution, which requires a two-thirds majority in parliament and approval by the Constitutional Court. International pressure has been mixed. Some Western allies have privately expressed concern about the lack of elections, arguing that democratic legitimacy is important during wartime. Others, including the U.S. State Department and European Union, have publicly stated that postponing elections during martial law is understandable and legal. In November 2023, EU Ambassador to Ukraine Katarina Mathernova said that Ukraine's democratic institutions continue to function despite the war, and that holding elections during active conflict would be 'extremely difficult.' Why people are interested: This is not just about Ukraine's internal politics. The outcome affects Western aid flows, diplomatic relations with Russia, and Ukraine's democratic image. If elections are held under fire, they could set a precedent for wartime democracies. If they are not held, critics may question the legitimacy of Zelenskyy's government. The market also reflects broader uncertainty about the trajectory of the war and whether a ceasefire or peace deal might create conditions for elections in 2025.

Historical Context

Ukraine has held regular elections since independence in 1991, with the exception of periods of major crisis. The 2014 Revolution of Dignity led to early presidential and parliamentary elections that year, with Petro Poroshenko elected president in May and a pro-European majority elected to parliament in October. The 2019 elections saw Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the presidency in a landslide, and his Servant of the People party won an absolute majority in parliament, the first time a single party had done so in Ukraine's history. Martial law has been used in Ukraine before, but on a smaller scale. In November 2018, Poroshenko imposed martial law in ten regions for 30 days after Russia seized Ukrainian naval vessels near the Kerch Strait. That period did not prevent the March 2019 presidential election from going ahead. The current martial law, imposed on February 24, 2022, is far more extensive and has been extended every 90 days by parliament. As of 2024, there have been 13 extensions. The question of election timing during war is not unique to Ukraine. The United States held elections in 1864 during the Civil War, with Abraham Lincoln winning re-election while the conflict was still ongoing. Britain held elections in 1918 during World War I, though the vote took place after the Armistice. Israel held elections in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic with special voting arrangements for quarantined citizens. But no modern democracy has held national elections while actively fighting a large-scale invasion with missile strikes on civilian areas.

Frequently Asked Questions