GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Ceará Senate Election: 1st Place

Name: Ceará Senate Election: 1st Place
End: 2026-10-04T06:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$11.05K

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Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Ceará Senate Election: 1st Place

Vol

$11.05K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $11.05K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $11.05K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Will Cid Gomes win the most votes in the 2026 Ceará Senate election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Cid Gomes win the most votes in the 2026 Ceará Senate election?	Poly	59%
Will Luizianne win the most votes in the 2026 Ceará Senate election?	Poly	23%
Will Capitão Wagner win the most votes in the 2026 Ceará Senate election?	Poly	21%
Will Alcides Fernandes win the most votes in the 2026 Ceará Senate election?	Poly	1%
Will Reginaldo win the most votes in the 2026 Ceará Senate election?	Poly	0%
Will Catarina Matos win the most votes in the 2026 Ceará Senate election?	Poly	0%
Will Guilherme Theophilo win the most votes in the 2026 Ceará Senate election?	Poly	0%
Will Lino Alves win the most votes in the 2026 Ceará Senate election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

59%

Top Probability

$11.05K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that oc

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Ceará Senate Election: 1st Place
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 4, 2026 (29 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that oc

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or mo"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $11.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $67.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.17)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Alcides Fernandes win the most votes in the 2026 Ceará Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $365
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Capitão Wagner win the most votes in the 2026 Ceará Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $662
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Catarina Matos win the most votes in the 2026 Ceará Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $352
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Cid Gomes win the most votes in the 2026 Ceará Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $8.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 58.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 41.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Guilherme Theophilo win the most votes in the 2026 Ceará Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $280
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Lino Alves win the most votes in the 2026 Ceará Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $329
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Luizianne win the most votes in the 2026 Ceará Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $537
  DATA: [Yes: 23.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Reginaldo win the most votes in the 2026 Ceará Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $278
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics