$14.36
1
9
$14.36
1
9
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
More markets for the Ligue 1 game, scheduled for April 5 at 11:15 AM ET.
For the upcoming French soccer match between Le Havre AC and AJ Auxerre, prediction markets are signaling a clear expectation for a low-scoring game. The leading market on whether the match will have over or under 1.5 total goals shows a 68% probability for "Under." This means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 2 in 3 chance that one or zero goals will be scored in total. It reflects a forecast for a tight, defensive contest.
Two main factors are likely driving this prediction. First, Le Havre’s recent performances have been defined by strong defense. They have conceded only 29 goals in 27 league matches this season, one of the better defensive records in Ligue 1. Their games often hinge on a single goal.
Second, the stakes of the match add context. Both teams are in a tense part of the league table, with Auxerre fighting for a European qualification spot and Le Havre positioned just above the relegation zone. In such high-pressure fixtures, teams often prioritize avoiding defeat over attacking flair, which can naturally lead to fewer goals. Historical meetings between these sides have also tended to be close, low-scoring affairs.
The match itself kicks off on Friday, April 5th, at 11:15 AM ET. The main factor that could shift predictions before then is team news, particularly regarding key attacking players. Official lineups are typically released about one hour before kickoff. Any announcements of significant player injuries or suspensions in the days leading up to the match could alter the market's view on each team's offensive capability.
Prediction markets on soccer totals like this have a mixed but generally useful track record. They efficiently aggregate many opinions, including from informed fans who watch team form and tactics closely. However, soccer is a low-scoring sport with high inherent randomness—a single deflection or moment of individual skill can easily overturn a "Under" forecast. While the collective intelligence here points strongly to a defensive game, the 32% chance for "Over" is a real reminder of the sport's unpredictability.
The prediction market for the Ligue 1 match between Le Havre AC and AJ Auxerre is pricing a 68% probability that the game will feature over 1.5 total goals. This price, translating to implied odds of -212, indicates the market views a low-scoring affair as the less likely outcome. However, with only $0K in volume across nine related markets, this is a highly illiquid contract. The lack of trading activity means the current 68% price is a weak signal, more indicative of a placeholder or a very small sample size than a strong consensus.
The market's lean toward over 1.5 goals likely reflects the broader statistical profile of both teams in Ligue 1. Historically, matches involving clubs in the lower half of the table, where both Le Havre and Auxerre typically reside, can feature more open play as teams push for results. Auxerre's matches this season have averaged approximately 2.6 total goals per game, while Le Havre's have been slightly lower. The 1.5 goal line is a low bar, and the market is essentially betting that the combined attacking output or defensive errors will produce at least two goals. A 68% probability suggests traders see a clear, though not overwhelming, tendency for this threshold to be met.
The odds are highly susceptible to change with any meaningful trading volume or team news. Key updates in the eight days before kickoff will be decisive. An injury to a primary attacking player for either side, such as Auxerre's leading scorer, could shift sentiment toward the under. Conversely, confirmation of defensive absences would strengthen the case for the over. Weather forecasts for the match day at Stade Océane in Le Havre could also impact the line; heavy rain or strong winds traditionally suppress scoring. Given the current negligible liquidity, the entry of just a few hundred dollars in wagers could swing the probability by 10-15 percentage points in either direction.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic focuses on additional betting markets for the Ligue 1 football match between Le Havre AC and AJ Auxerre, scheduled for April 5, 2024, at 11:15 AM Eastern Time. While standard match outcome markets (win/draw/lose) exist, these 'more markets' encompass a wider range of specific in-game events and statistical outcomes. These typically include bets on exact scorelines, total goals scored, individual player performances like first goalscorer or number of shots on target, halftime/fulltime results, and various combinations of events. The match is part of the 28th round of the 2023-2024 French Ligue 1 season. Interest in these markets stems from bettors and football analysts seeking more granular engagement with the match beyond simply predicting the winner. The specific dynamics of this fixture, featuring a promoted team (Le Havre) against a historically significant club (Auxerre) fighting to avoid relegation, create numerous variables that make alternative markets appealing. Recent form, tactical approaches, and key player availability directly influence the probability and pricing of these specialized bets.
The football rivalry between Le Havre AC and AJ Auxerre is not among France's most intense, but it carries historical weight from periods when both clubs were Ligue 1 mainstays. Their first recorded competitive meeting was in the 1980-1981 season. The most notable historical period for this fixture was in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Auxerre, under legendary manager Guy Roux, was a consistent European qualifier and won the Ligue 1 title in 1996. Le Havre, while less decorated, was known for its prolific youth academy. Matches during this era often had implications for European qualification. The clubs have experienced divergent fortunes since. Auxerre was relegated in 2012 and spent a decade in Ligue 2 before returning in 2022. Le Havre's relegation in 2008 began a 15-year absence from the top flight, ended only by their promotion for the current 2023-2024 season. Their most recent meeting prior to this season was in Ligue 2 in April 2022, a 0-0 draw. The long separation adds an element of renewed competition to their current encounters.
Beyond the sporting contest, the markets for this match represent a segment of the global sports betting industry, which was valued at over $83 billion in 2022. The availability and accuracy of pricing for these specialized markets reflect the sophistication of sports data analytics and algorithmic modeling used by bookmakers. For the clubs, the financial implications of the match result are substantial. Ligue 1's distribution of television rights and prize money means each league position gained is worth approximately €2 million. For Auxerre, avoiding relegation is critical to retaining an estimated €40 million in annual broadcast revenue. For the city of Le Havre, maintaining top-flight status boosts local economic activity through matchday revenue, tourism, and heightened commercial appeal. The match also impacts the career trajectories of managers and players, whose market value and future contracts are influenced by performances in high-stakes fixtures.
As of late March 2024, Le Havre occupies 13th place with 28 points, 6 points above the relegation playoff spot. Their recent form shows resilience, with a win against Toulouse and a draw against Monaco in their last five matches. AJ Auxerre is in 16th place with 25 points, just one point above the direct relegation zone. They are in poor form, having lost their last three consecutive matches against Lille, Brest, and Lens. The immediate build-up to the April 5 match will be dominated by team news regarding injuries and suspensions, which will cause significant movement in the odds for all associated betting markets. Both squads are returning from the international break, adding a variable regarding player fatigue.
The match kicks off at 11:15 AM Eastern Time (ET) on April 5, 2024. This corresponds to 5:15 PM Central European Time (CET) in France and 4:15 PM British Summer Time (BST) in the UK.
In the United States, Ligue 1 matches are broadcast on beIN Sports. In France, the match is likely to be televised on Canal+ or Amazon Prime Video Ligue 1, depending on the broadcasting schedule for that specific round.
In their previous meeting during the 2023-2024 season, AJ Auxerre defeated Le Havre AC 1-0 at the Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps on December 3, 2023. The lone goal was scored by Auxerre's Gaëtan Perrin.
Based on league position, home advantage, and recent form, Le Havre AC is generally considered the slight favorite. However, the match is viewed as closely contested, with odds typically reflecting a narrow margin between the two teams.
Common markets beyond the match winner include Total Goals (Over/Under 2.5), Both Teams to Score, Correct Score, Half-Time/Full-Time result, First Goalscorer, Anytime Goalscorer, and various player-specific prop bets like shots on target or assists.
Yes, the match has significant relegation implications. Auxerre is directly involved in the battle, sitting just above the drop zone. A loss for Auxerre could see them fall into the bottom three, while a win for Le Havre would move them closer to safety.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
9 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 68% |
| Poly | 52% |
| Poly | 51% |
| Poly | 51% |
| Poly | 43% |
| Poly | 27% |
| Poly | 25% |
| Poly | 24% |
| Poly | 11% |
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