Market snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform4 EventsPolitics

Closest Governor's Race?

Reported volume

PM $73.2K · K 1.53M contracts

Events

Markets

115

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Closest Governor's Race?

Vol

PM $73.2K · K 1.53M contracts

Events

Markets

115

Polymarket Kalshi

Polymarket vs Kalshi

Snapshot from Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC

As of Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, Georgia is priced at 18% on Polymarket and 21% on Kalshi.

Outcome (Yes price)	Polymarket	Kalshi	Gap
GeorgiaSame question, fine print differs	18%	21%	3.0 pts
NevadaSame question, fine print differs	10.4%	10.2%	0.2 pts
KansasSame question, fine print differs	9.7%	8.6%	1.1 pts
TexasSame question, fine print differs	9.6%	7.5%	2.1 pts
OhioSame question, fine print differs	8.5%	8.3%	0.3 pts
NebraskaSame question, fine print differs	8%	8.5%	0.5 pts
FloridaSame question, fine print differs	7.9%	5.5%	2.4 pts
WisconsinSame question, fine print differs	6.5%	5.5%	1.0 pts

Yes prices for outcomes an automated review found to ask the same question on both platforms. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

Price ChartContract price history

53 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will Arkansas be the closest Governor's race in 2026?

No data available

Include related or unreviewed contracts

No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with usable prices. You can inspect related contracts, but their prices do not measure the same outcome.

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff

Single-Platform Markets(23)

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Saved matching review

Same question, fine print differs: 24 pairs

Related contracts: 38 pairs

A saved event match does not establish identical settlement. Pair reviews appear with each price comparison.

Review notes

Saved notes may describe earlier contract terms. Use the pair status above and current provider rules.

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 18 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Senate Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 24 same question with differing fine print, 0 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 20 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Senate race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-10T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Senate Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $73.2K · K 1.53M contracts

Reported volume · provider units

115

Saved contracts

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC

About This Event

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically. This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.

Snapshot observed 2026-10-20T06:00:05.944Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The Polymarket event "Closest Governor's Race?" resolves according to the US state gubernatorial race with the smallest margin of victory [1]. The rules define margin as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates" [1]. For multi-round elections, the margin is taken from the round in which the winner is determined, and ties go to "the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically" [1].

The rules cover "all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026" [1]. This is a condition in the contract text, not an announced election date. The rules also state that "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. The listed end time for each market is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1].

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-20T06:00:05.944Z, and this report retrieved them at 2026-10-20T08:07:24.049Z [1]. They are a record of that observation, not live quotes. The Yes prices shown are Georgia 0.1625, Nevada 0.13, Kansas 0.1235, Ohio 0.104, Texas 0.1005, Florida 0.0875, Wisconsin 0.0845, Tennessee 0.065, Oklahoma 0.0545, Vermont 0.0505, Oregon 0.0405, and Nebraska 0.0315 [1]. Each market is a separate yes or no question about one state, so the prices should be read individually rather than summed or compared as a ranking of the whole field.

The sample is partial. The event contains 36 markets, and 12 are included [1]. The sample was chosen by highest Yes price, so the omitted markets are not shown and should not be assumed to have lower prices. Only one provider is represented here, so no cross-platform comparison is possible.

What remains uncertain

The snapshot does not show trading volume, depth, or the number of participants, and these prices should not be treated as executable quotes or verified probabilities. The evidence contains no information explaining why any price is where it is. The rules also depend on how certifying authorities or credible reporting determine margins after the election [1], which this snapshot cannot assess. Because the listed end time falls after the scheduled election date in the rules, the actual resolution timing and outcome are not established by this evidence.

References

Polymarket: Closest Governor's Race?. Provider data observed 2026-10-20T06:00:05.944Z.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Saved Oct 20, 2026 UTC

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Event: Closest Governor's Race?
Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): PM $73.2K · K 1.53M contracts
Coverage: 115 of 115 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Will Arizona have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-AZ; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 7.0K contracts
Outcome Yes: 1.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 98.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Arizona has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Arizona be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378992; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-arizona-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $157.32
Outcome Yes: <0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: >99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Nevada have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-NV; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 13.9K contracts
Outcome Yes: 10.2%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 89.8%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Nevada has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Nevada be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379019; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-nevada-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $6.2K
Outcome Yes: 10.4%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 89.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will New York have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-NY; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 9.7K contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.9%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.2%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If New York has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will New York be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379035; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-new-york-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $80.63
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Pennsylvania have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-PA; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 4.3K contracts
Outcome Yes: <0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: >99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): If Pennsylvania has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calcula

Contract: Will Pennsylvania be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379040; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-pennsylvania-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $251.54
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Vermont have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-VT; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 6.3K contracts
Outcome Yes: 3.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 96.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Vermont has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Vermont be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379018; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-vermont-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $2.0K
Outcome Yes: 4.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 95.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Wisconsin have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-WI; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 11.1K contracts
Outcome Yes: 5.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 94.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): If Wisconsin has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated

Contract: Will Wisconsin be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378997; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-wisconsin-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $2.5K
Outcome Yes: 6.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 93.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Colorado have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-CO; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 100 contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Colorado has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Colorado be the closest Senate race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378951; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-colorado-be-the-closest-senate-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $419.53
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities respon

Contract: Will Colorado be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378994; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-colorado-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $107.4
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will New Mexico have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-NM; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 337.06 contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.6%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): If New Mexico has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculate

Contract: Will New Mexico be the closest Senate race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378952; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-new-mexico-be-the-closest-senate-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $419.53
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities respon

Contract: Will New Mexico be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378991; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-new-mexico-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $273.88
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Oklahoma have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-OK; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 100.79 contracts
Outcome Yes: 1.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 98.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Oklahoma has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Oklahoma be the closest Senate race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378982; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-oklahoma-be-the-closest-senate-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $240.93
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities respon

Contract: Will Oklahoma be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379036; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-oklahoma-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $647.95
Outcome Yes: 4.3%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 95.8%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Oregon have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-OR; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 4.4K contracts
Outcome Yes: 3.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 96.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Oregon has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Oregon be the closest Senate race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378983; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-oregon-be-the-closest-senate-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $240.93
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities respon

Contract: Will Oregon be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378990; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-oregon-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $1.8K
Outcome Yes: 5.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 95.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Alaska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-AK; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 4.9K contracts
Outcome Yes: 1.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 98.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Alaska has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Alaska be the closest Senate race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378949; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-alaska-be-the-closest-senate-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $2.1K
Outcome Yes: 6.3%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 93.7%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities respon

Contract: Will Alaska be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378989; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-alaska-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $352.97
Outcome Yes: 2.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 98.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Alaska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-AK; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestsenate-27jan03
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 10, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 96.4K contracts
Outcome Yes: 6.9%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 93.2%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Alaska has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Florida have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-FL; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 6.2K contracts
Outcome Yes: 5.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 94.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Florida has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Florida (Special) be the closest Senate race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378960; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-florida-special-be-the-closest-senate-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $1.8K
Outcome Yes: 4.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 95.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities respon

Contract: Will Florida be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379016; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-florida-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $2.3K
Outcome Yes: 7.9%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 92.1%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Florida have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-FL; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestsenate-27jan03
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 10, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 71.3K contracts
Outcome Yes: 3.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 96.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Florida has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Georgia have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-GA; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 17.8K contracts
Outcome Yes: 21.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 79.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Georgia has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Georgia be the closest Senate race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378959; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-georgia-be-the-closest-senate-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $382.51
Outcome Yes: 0.6%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.4%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities respon

Contract: Will Georgia be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379017; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-georgia-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $3.9K
Outcome Yes: 18.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 82.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Georgia have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-GA; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestsenate-27jan03
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 10, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 78.9K contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.3%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.7%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Georgia has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Iowa have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-IA; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 13.0K contracts
Outcome Yes: 2.8%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 97.2%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Iowa has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Iowa be the closest Senate race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378955; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-iowa-be-the-closest-senate-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $3.1K
Outcome Yes: 15.7%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 84.3%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities respon

Contract: Will Iowa be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379010; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-iowa-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $415.85
Outcome Yes: 3.8%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 96.2%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Iowa have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-IA; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestsenate-27jan03
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 10, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 88.9K contracts
Outcome Yes: 15.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 84.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Iowa has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Kansas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-KS; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 9.1K contracts
Outcome Yes: 8.6%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 91.4%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Kansas has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Kansas be the closest Senate race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378965; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-kansas-be-the-closest-senate-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $8.7K
Outcome Yes: 15.3%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 84.7%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities respon

Contract: Will Kansas be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378995; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-kansas-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $1.8K
Outcome Yes: 9.7%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 90.3%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Kansas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-KS; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestsenate-27jan03
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 10, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 127.4K contracts
Outcome Yes: 16.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 83.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Kansas has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Maine have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-ME; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 3.0K contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.4%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.7%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Maine has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Maine be the closest Senate race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378964; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-maine-be-the-closest-senate-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $1.8K
Outcome Yes: 9.3%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 90.8%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities respon

Contract: Will Maine be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379011; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-maine-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $217.65
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Maine have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-ME; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestsenate-27jan03
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 10, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 77.1K contracts
Outcome Yes: 9.7%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 90.3%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Maine has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Michigan have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-MI; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 4.9K contracts
Outcome Yes: 1.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 98.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Michigan has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Michigan be the closest Senate race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378957; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-michigan-be-the-closest-senate-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $1.7K
Outcome Yes: 8.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 91.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities respon

Contract: Will Michigan be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379001; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-michigan-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $327.69
Outcome Yes: 2.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 97.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Michigan have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-MI; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestsenate-27jan03
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 10, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 97.7K contracts
Outcome Yes: 8.6%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 91.3%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Michigan has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Minnesota have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-MN; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 3.3K contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.4%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.6%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): If Minnesota has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated

Contract: Will Minnesota be the closest Senate race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378956; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-minnesota-be-the-closest-senate-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $1.1K
Outcome Yes: 3.4%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 96.7%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities respon

Contract: Will Minnesota be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378996; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-minnesota-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $211.05
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Minnesota have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-MN; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestsenate-27jan03
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 10, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 50.5K contracts
Outcome Yes: 3.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 96.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Minnesota has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Nebraska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-NE; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 5.7K contracts
Outcome Yes: 8.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 91.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Nebraska has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Nebraska be the closest Senate race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378954; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-nebraska-be-the-closest-senate-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $986.68
Outcome Yes: 7.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 93.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities respon

Contract: Will Nebraska be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379034; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-nebraska-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $301.85
Outcome Yes: 8.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 92.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Nebraska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-NE; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestsenate-27jan03
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 10, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 61.0K contracts
Outcome Yes: 6.3%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 93.8%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Nebraska has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will New Hampshire have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-NH; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 1.4K contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.9%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.1%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): If New Hampshire has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calcul

Contract: Will New Hampshire be the closest Senate race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378963; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-new-hampshire-be-the-closest-senate-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $445.53
Outcome Yes: 1.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 98.6%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities respon

Contract: Will New Hampshire be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379014; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-new-hampshire-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $552.85
Outcome Yes: 2.3%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 97.8%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will New Hampshire have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-NH; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestsenate-27jan03
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 10, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 52.1K contracts
Outcome Yes: 1.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 98.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If New Hampshire has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Ohio have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-OH; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 14.7K contracts
Outcome Yes: 8.3%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 91.8%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Ohio has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Ohio (Special) be the closest Senate race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378958; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-ohio-special-be-the-closest-senate-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $906.65
Outcome Yes: 4.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 96.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities respon

Contract: Will Ohio be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379004; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-ohio-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $2.6K
Outcome Yes: 8.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 91.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Ohio have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-OH; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestsenate-27jan03
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 10, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 80.9K contracts
Outcome Yes: 7.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 92.8%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Ohio has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will South Carolina have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-SC; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 1.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 98.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): If South Carolina has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calcu

Contract: Will South Carolina be the closest Senate race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378966; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-south-carolina-be-the-closest-senate-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $2.8K
Outcome Yes: 7.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 93.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities respon

Contract: Will South Carolina be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379042; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-south-carolina-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $253.27
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will South Carolina have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-SC; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestsenate-27jan03
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 10, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 77.8K contracts
Outcome Yes: 7.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 92.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If South Carolina has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will South Dakota have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-SD; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 100 contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): If South Dakota has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calcula

Contract: Will South Dakota be the closest Senate race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378985; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-south-dakota-be-the-closest-senate-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $640.17
Outcome Yes: 0.9%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.1%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities respon

Contract: Will South Dakota be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379043; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-south-dakota-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $218.22
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will South Dakota have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-SD; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestsenate-27jan03
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 10, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 38.4K contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If South Dakota has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Texas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-TX; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 10.8K contracts
Outcome Yes: 7.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 92.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Texas has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Texas be the closest Senate race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378953; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-texas-be-the-closest-senate-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $4.3K
Outcome Yes: 12.2%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 87.8%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities respon

Contract: Will Texas be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378993; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-texas-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $1.8K
Outcome Yes: 9.6%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 90.4%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Texas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-TX; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestsenate-27jan03
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 10, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 121.8K contracts
Outcome Yes: 11.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 88.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Texas has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Arkansas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-AR; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestsenate-27jan03
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 10, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 21.6K contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Arkansas has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Arkansas be the closest Senate race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378968; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-arkansas-be-the-closest-senate-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $2.0K
Outcome Yes: 1.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities respon

Contract: Will Idaho have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-ID; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestsenate-27jan03
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 10, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 42.8K contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Idaho has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Idaho be the closest Senate race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378970; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-idaho-be-the-closest-senate-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $787.04
Outcome Yes: 1.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 98.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities respon

Contract: Will Louisiana have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-LA; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestsenate-27jan03
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 10, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 20.9K contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Louisiana has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Louisiana be the closest Senate race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378973; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-louisiana-be-the-closest-senate-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $799.72
Outcome Yes: 2.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 97.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities respon

Contract: Will Mississippi have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-MS; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestsenate-27jan03
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 10, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 55.9K contracts
Outcome Yes: 2.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 97.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Mississippi has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Mississippi be the closest Senate race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378975; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-mississippi-be-the-closest-senate-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $1.4K
Outcome Yes: 3.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 97.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities respon

Contract: Will Montana have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-MT; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestsenate-27jan03
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 10, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 59.8K contracts
Outcome Yes: 1.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 98.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Montana has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Montana be the closest Senate race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378950; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-montana-be-the-closest-senate-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $520.09
Outcome Yes: 1.6%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 98.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities respon

Contract: Will North Carolina have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-NC; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestsenate-27jan03
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 10, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 60.4K contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If North Carolina has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will North Carolina be the closest Senate race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378962; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-north-carolina-be-the-closest-senate-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $392.5
Outcome Yes: 0.4%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.6%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities respon

Contract: Will Virginia be the closest Senate race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378961; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-virginia-be-the-closest-senate-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $234.82
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities respon

Contract: Will Alabama be the closest Senate race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378967; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-alabama-be-the-closest-senate-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $240.93
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities respon

Contract: Will Delaware be the closest Senate race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378969; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-delaware-be-the-closest-senate-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $240.93
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities respon

Contract: Will Illinois be the closest Senate race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378971; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-illinois-be-the-closest-senate-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $240.93
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities respon

Contract: Will Kentucky be the closest Senate race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378972; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-kentucky-be-the-closest-senate-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $394.52
Outcome Yes: 0.7%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.4%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities respon

Contract: Will Massachusetts be the closest Senate race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378974; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-massachusetts-be-the-closest-senate-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $240.93
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities respon

Contract: Will New Jersey be the closest Senate race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378976; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-new-jersey-be-the-closest-senate-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $240.93
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities respon

Contract: Will Rhode Island be the closest Senate race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378984; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-rhode-island-be-the-closest-senate-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $240.93
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities respon

Contract: Will Tennessee be the closest Senate race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378986; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-tennessee-be-the-closest-senate-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $240.93
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities respon

Contract: Will West Virginia be the closest Senate race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378987; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-west-virginia-be-the-closest-senate-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $240.93
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities respon

Contract: Will Wyoming be the closest Senate race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378988; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-wyoming-be-the-closest-senate-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $230.93
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities respon

Contract: Will Alabama be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379025; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-alabama-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $343.57
Outcome Yes: 2.4%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 97.6%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Arkansas be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379026; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-arkansas-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $466.56
Outcome Yes: 4.4%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 95.6%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will California be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379027; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-california-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $237.65
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Connecticut be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379028; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-connecticut-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $47.03
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Hawaii be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379029; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-hawaii-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $236.05
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Idaho be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379030; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-idaho-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $231.05
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Illinois be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379031; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-illinois-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $373.2
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Maryland be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379032; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-maryland-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $162.33
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Massachusetts be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379033; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-massachusetts-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $233.47
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Rhode Island be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379041; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-rhode-island-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $250.55
Outcome Yes: 0.3%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.8%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Tennessee be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379044; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-tennessee-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $390.92
Outcome Yes: 2.2%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 97.8%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Wyoming be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379045; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-wyoming-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $231.59
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Saved cross-platform review:
polymarket-5378959 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-GA: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Georgia have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Georgia be the closest Senate race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:04 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 18 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Senate Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378955 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-IA: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Iowa have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Iowa be the closest Senate race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:04 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 18 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Senate Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378964 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-ME: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Maine have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Maine be the closest Senate race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:04 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 18 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Senate Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378957 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-MI: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Michigan have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Michigan be the closest Senate race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:04 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 18 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Senate Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378965 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-KS: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Kansas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Kansas be the closest Senate race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:04 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 18 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Senate Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378966 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-SC: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will South Carolina have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will South Carolina be the closest Senate race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:04 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 18 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Senate Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378949 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-AK: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Alaska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Alaska be the closest Senate race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:04 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 18 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Senate Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378953 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-TX: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Texas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Texas be the closest Senate race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:04 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 18 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Senate Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378958 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-OH: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Ohio have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Ohio (Special) be the closest Senate race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:04 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 18 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Senate Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378983 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-OR: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Oregon have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Oregon be the closest Senate race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:04 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 18 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Senate Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378958 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-OH: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Ohio have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-10T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Ohio (Special) be the closest Senate race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:20 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 20 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Senate race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-10T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Senate Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5379017 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-GA: Same question, fine print differs. The automated review found that both contracts ask the same question, but their fine print differs, so they may not settle identically. Kalshi: "Will Georgia have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Georgia be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:05 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 24 same question with differing fine print, 0 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378956 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-MN: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Minnesota have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Minnesota be the closest Senate race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:04 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 18 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Senate Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5379036 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-OK: Same question, fine print differs. The automated review found that both contracts ask the same question, but their fine print differs, so they may not settle identically. Kalshi: "Will Oklahoma have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Oklahoma be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:05 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 24 same question with differing fine print, 0 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5379016 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-FL: Same question, fine print differs. The automated review found that both contracts ask the same question, but their fine print differs, so they may not settle identically. Kalshi: "Will Florida have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Florida be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:05 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 24 same question with differing fine print, 0 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378993 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-TX: Same question, fine print differs. The automated review found that both contracts ask the same question, but their fine print differs, so they may not settle identically. Kalshi: "Will Texas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Texas be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:05 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 24 same question with differing fine print, 0 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378973 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-LA: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Louisiana have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-10T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Louisiana be the closest Senate race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:20 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 20 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Senate race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-10T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Senate Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378954 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-NE: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Nebraska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Nebraska be the closest Senate race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:04 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 18 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Senate Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378990 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-OR: Same question, fine print differs. The automated review found that both contracts ask the same question, but their fine print differs, so they may not settle identically. Kalshi: "Will Oregon have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Oregon be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:05 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 24 same question with differing fine print, 0 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378960 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-FL: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Florida have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Florida (Special) be the closest Senate race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:04 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 18 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Senate Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378982 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-OK: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Oklahoma have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Oklahoma be the closest Senate race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:04 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 18 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Senate Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5379014 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-NH: Same question, fine print differs. The automated review found that both contracts ask the same question, but their fine print differs, so they may not settle identically. Kalshi: "Will New Hampshire have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will New Hampshire be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:05 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 24 same question with differing fine print, 0 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378965 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-KS: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Kansas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-10T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Kansas be the closest Senate race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:20 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 20 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Senate race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-10T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Senate Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378995 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-KS: Same question, fine print differs. The automated review found that both contracts ask the same question, but their fine print differs, so they may not settle identically. Kalshi: "Will Kansas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Kansas be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:05 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 24 same question with differing fine print, 0 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378992 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-AZ: Same question, fine print differs. The automated review found that both contracts ask the same question, but their fine print differs, so they may not settle identically. Kalshi: "Will Arizona have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Arizona be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:05 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 24 same question with differing fine print, 0 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5379018 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-VT: Same question, fine print differs. The automated review found that both contracts ask the same question, but their fine print differs, so they may not settle identically. Kalshi: "Will Vermont have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Vermont be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:05 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 24 same question with differing fine print, 0 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5379001 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-MI: Same question, fine print differs. The automated review found that both contracts ask the same question, but their fine print differs, so they may not settle identically. Kalshi: "Will Michigan have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Michigan be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:05 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 24 same question with differing fine print, 0 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5379042 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-SC: Same question, fine print differs. The automated review found that both contracts ask the same question, but their fine print differs, so they may not settle identically. Kalshi: "Will South Carolina have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will South Carolina be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:05 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 24 same question with differing fine print, 0 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5379010 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-IA: Same question, fine print differs. The automated review found that both contracts ask the same question, but their fine print differs, so they may not settle identically. Kalshi: "Will Iowa have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Iowa be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:05 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 24 same question with differing fine print, 0 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378997 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-WI: Same question, fine print differs. The automated review found that both contracts ask the same question, but their fine print differs, so they may not settle identically. Kalshi: "Will Wisconsin have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Wisconsin be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:05 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 24 same question with differing fine print, 0 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378954 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-NE: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Nebraska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-10T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Nebraska be the closest Senate race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:20 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 20 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Senate race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-10T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Senate Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5379035 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-NY: Same question, fine print differs. The automated review found that both contracts ask the same question, but their fine print differs, so they may not settle identically. Kalshi: "Will New York have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will New York be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:05 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 24 same question with differing fine print, 0 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378953 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-TX: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Texas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-10T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Texas be the closest Senate race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:20 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 20 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Senate race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-10T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Senate Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378970 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-ID: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Idaho have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-10T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Idaho be the closest Senate race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:20 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 20 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Senate race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-10T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Senate Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378960 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-FL: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Florida have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-10T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Florida (Special) be the closest Senate race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:20 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 20 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Senate race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-10T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Senate Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378989 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-AK: Same question, fine print differs. The automated review found that both contracts ask the same question, but their fine print differs, so they may not settle identically. Kalshi: "Will Alaska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Alaska be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:05 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 24 same question with differing fine print, 0 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378968 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-AR: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Arkansas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-10T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Arkansas be the closest Senate race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:20 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 20 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Senate race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-10T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Senate Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378963 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-NH: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will New Hampshire have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will New Hampshire be the closest Senate race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:04 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 18 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Senate Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378975 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-MS: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Mississippi have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-10T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Mississippi be the closest Senate race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:20 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 20 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Senate race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-10T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Senate Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5379034 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-NE: Same question, fine print differs. The automated review found that both contracts ask the same question, but their fine print differs, so they may not settle identically. Kalshi: "Will Nebraska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Nebraska be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:05 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 24 same question with differing fine print, 0 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378949 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-AK: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Alaska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-10T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Alaska be the closest Senate race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:20 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 20 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Senate race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-10T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Senate Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378966 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-SC: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will South Carolina have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-10T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will South Carolina be the closest Senate race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:20 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 20 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Senate race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-10T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Senate Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378964 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-ME: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Maine have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-10T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Maine be the closest Senate race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:20 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 20 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Senate race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-10T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Senate Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378985 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-SD: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will South Dakota have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will South Dakota be the closest Senate race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:04 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 18 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Senate Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378985 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-SD: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will South Dakota have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-10T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will South Dakota be the closest Senate race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:20 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 20 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Senate race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-10T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Senate Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378994 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-CO: Same question, fine print differs. The automated review found that both contracts ask the same question, but their fine print differs, so they may not settle identically. Kalshi: "Will Colorado have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Colorado be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:05 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 24 same question with differing fine print, 0 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5379043 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-SD: Same question, fine print differs. The automated review found that both contracts ask the same question, but their fine print differs, so they may not settle identically. Kalshi: "Will South Dakota have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will South Dakota be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:05 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 24 same question with differing fine print, 0 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378959 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-GA: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Georgia have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-10T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Georgia be the closest Senate race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:20 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 20 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Senate race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-10T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Senate Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5379004 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-OH: Same question, fine print differs. The automated review found that both contracts ask the same question, but their fine print differs, so they may not settle identically. Kalshi: "Will Ohio have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Ohio be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:05 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 24 same question with differing fine print, 0 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378996 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-MN: Same question, fine print differs. The automated review found that both contracts ask the same question, but their fine print differs, so they may not settle identically. Kalshi: "Will Minnesota have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Minnesota be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:05 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 24 same question with differing fine print, 0 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378962 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-NC: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will North Carolina have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-10T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will North Carolina be the closest Senate race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:20 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 20 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Senate race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-10T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Senate Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5379019 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-NV: Same question, fine print differs. The automated review found that both contracts ask the same question, but their fine print differs, so they may not settle identically. Kalshi: "Will Nevada have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Nevada be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:05 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 24 same question with differing fine print, 0 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378955 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-IA: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Iowa have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-10T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Iowa be the closest Senate race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:20 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 20 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Senate race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-10T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Senate Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378956 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-MN: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Minnesota have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-10T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Minnesota be the closest Senate race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:20 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 20 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Senate race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-10T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Senate Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5379011 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-ME: Same question, fine print differs. The automated review found that both contracts ask the same question, but their fine print differs, so they may not settle identically. Kalshi: "Will Maine have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Maine be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:05 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 24 same question with differing fine print, 0 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378957 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-MI: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Michigan have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-10T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Michigan be the closest Senate race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:20 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 20 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Senate race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-10T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Senate Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5379040 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-PA: Same question, fine print differs. The automated review found that both contracts ask the same question, but their fine print differs, so they may not settle identically. Kalshi: "Will Pennsylvania have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Pennsylvania be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:05 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 24 same question with differing fine print, 0 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378991 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-NM: Same question, fine print differs. The automated review found that both contracts ask the same question, but their fine print differs, so they may not settle identically. Kalshi: "Will New Mexico have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will New Mexico be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:05 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 24 same question with differing fine print, 0 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378950 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-MT: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Montana have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-10T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Montana be the closest Senate race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:20 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 20 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Senate race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-10T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Senate Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378951 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-CO: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Colorado have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Colorado be the closest Senate race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:04 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 18 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Senate Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378952 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-NM: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will New Mexico have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will New Mexico be the closest Senate race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:04 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 18 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Senate Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378963 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-NH: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will New Hampshire have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-10T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will New Hampshire be the closest Senate race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 11:20 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 20 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Senate race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-10T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Senate Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

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This saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.

Overview

This Polymarket event, titled "Closest Governor's Race?", asks which U.S. state gubernatorial race in 2026 will have the smallest margin of victory. The rules say the market resolves according to the gubernatorial race with the smallest margin, where margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Each percentage is that candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast in the election [1]. The rules cover regular and special gubernatorial elections scheduled for November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. They exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and other subdivisions that are not states [1]. The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026 [1]. For elections with runoffs, ranked-choice voting, or other multi-round formats, the margin is measured in the round where the winner is determined. If two state margins are identical, the market resolves to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically [1]. The stated resolution source is a compilation of the relevant state election authorities that certify statewide elections. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. The event lists an end time of November 4, 2026 at 04:59 UTC [1]. That is a listed time in the contract, not an announced result or a confirmed resolution date. The market contracts shown here are a partial sample. The saved event contains 36 state markets, and 12 are included in this sample. The sample ranks markets by their Yes price in the snapshot, so the omitted markets are not shown and cannot be compared with the included ones [1]. Prices in a snapshot are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and a higher or lower price does not show how any race will turn out.

Historical Context

The New York gubernatorial election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, and primary elections took place on June 23, 2026. Candidates selected running mates rather than holding separate primaries for lieutenant governor [2]. These details come from a Wikipedia article retrieved on October 20, 2026, so they describe the article's content at that retrieval time rather than a verified current status. The supplied sources do not include a history of past closest-race contracts or of earlier margin-of-victory results.

Why It Matters

The contract measures a single statistic: the smallest margin of victory among the 2026 November gubernatorial races that meet the listed criteria [1]. Because the margin is based on the gap between the top two candidates' shares of valid votes, the contract is about how close a race is rather than which party or candidate wins [1]. Traders can therefore hold positions on states that are expected to be close, while the resolution depends on certified results from state election authorities or credible reporting [1]. The New York race is one of the scheduled 2026 gubernatorial contests in the background sources, with Kathy Hochul running for re-election [2][3]. The supplied evidence does not establish how its margin compares with other states' margins.

Snapshot context

The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-20 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]

Frequently Asked Questions

Which races count toward this contract?

The contract covers regular and special gubernatorial elections scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Territories, the District of Columbia, and other non-state subdivisions are excluded [1].

How is the margin of victory calculated?

The margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Each percentage is based on the total valid votes cast in the election [1].

What happens in a runoff or ranked-choice election?

For multi-round elections, the relevant margin is the one from the round in which the winner is determined [1].

What happens if two states have the same margin?

The market resolves to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically [1].

Does the listed end time mean the market resolves then?

No. The event lists an end time of November 4, 2026 at 04:59 UTC, but the resolution depends on the certified results or consensus reporting described in the rules [1].

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Saved Oct 20, 2026 UTC

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Closest Governor race in 2026?

Before Jan 20, 2027 If X has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used. If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins, tied to the hundredth of a percentage point, tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Volume$152.13K

Markets24

POLYMARKETPolitics

Closest Senate Race?

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically. This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Volume$40.89K

Markets35

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Will Kansas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?

kalshi

Will Kansas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?

Yes: 8.6¢
No: 91.4¢

polymarket

Will Kansas be the closest Senate race in 2026?

Yes: 15.3¢
No: 84.7¢

polymarket

Will Kansas be the closest Governor's race in 2026?

Yes: 9.7¢
No: 90.3¢

kalshi

Will Kansas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?

Yes: 16.5¢
No: 83.5¢

Will Nevada have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?

Same question, fine print differs

The automated review found that both contracts ask the same question, but their fine print differs, so they may not settle identically. Kalshi: "Will Nevada have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Nevada be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:05:05 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

kalshi

Will Nevada have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?

Yes: 10.2¢
No: 89.8¢

polymarket

Will Nevada be the closest Governor's race in 2026?

Yes: 10.4¢
No: 89.5¢

Will Texas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?

kalshi

Will Texas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?

Yes: 7.5¢
No: 92.5¢

polymarket

Will Texas be the closest Senate race in 2026?

Yes: 12.2¢
No: 87.8¢

polymarket

Will Texas be the closest Governor's race in 2026?

Yes: 9.6¢
No: 90.4¢

kalshi

Will Texas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?

Yes: 11.5¢
No: 88.5¢

Will Georgia have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?

kalshi

Will Georgia have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?

Yes: 21.0¢
No: 79.0¢

polymarket

Will Georgia be the closest Senate race in 2026?

Yes: 0.6¢
No: 99.4¢

polymarket

Will Georgia be the closest Governor's race in 2026?

Yes: 18.0¢
No: 82.0¢

kalshi

Will Georgia have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?

Yes: 0.3¢
No: 99.7¢

Will Iowa have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?

kalshi

Will Iowa have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?

Yes: 2.8¢
No: 97.2¢

polymarket

Will Iowa be the closest Senate race in 2026?

Yes: 15.7¢
No: 84.3¢

polymarket

Will Iowa be the closest Governor's race in 2026?

Yes: 3.8¢
No: 96.2¢

kalshi

Will Iowa have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?

Yes: 15.5¢
No: 84.5¢

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketKalshiPolitics

Arizona Governor winner?

PM $408.2K · K 1.25M contracts

Will the Democrats win Maricopa County in the Arizona governor race in 2026?

Kalshi: Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Arizona

Related contracts

PM Yes 93%Rules differK Yes 89.5%

Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?

Kalshi: Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Arizona

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 92%Rules differK Yes 89.5%

Will the Republicans win Maricopa County in the Arizona governor race in 2026?

Kalshi: Will the Republican party win the governorship in Arizona

Related contracts

PM Yes 7.5%Rules differK Yes 10.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

4 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 3, 2026 UTC

PolymarketKalshiPolitics

Rhode Island Governor Election Margin of Victory

PM $109.3K · K 124.9K contracts

Will the Democrats win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026?

Kalshi: Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Rhode Island

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 95.5%Rules differK Yes 94.6%

Will an independent win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026?

Kalshi: Will Ken Block (Independent) win the governorship in Rhode Island

Related contracts

PM Yes 2.9%Rules differK Yes 5.5%

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election?

Kalshi: Will the Republican party win the governorship in Rhode Island

Related contracts

PM Yes 1.7%Rules differK Yes 0.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

4 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 4, 2026 UTC

PolymarketKalshiPolitics

Michigan Governor winner?

PM $452.7K · K 542.4K contracts

Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?

Kalshi: Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Michigan

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 92.8%Rules differK Yes 92%

Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?

Kalshi: Will the Republican party win the governorship in Michigan

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 7.2%Rules differK Yes 8.5%

Will an independent win the Michigan governor race in 2026?

Kalshi: Will Mike Duggan (Independent) win the governorship in Michigan

Related contracts

PM Yes <0.1%Rules differK Yes <0.1%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

3 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 4, 2026 UTC

PolymarketKalshiPolitics

New York Governor Election Margin of Victory

PM $350.6K · K 5.32M contracts

Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?

Kalshi: Will the Democratic party win the governorship in New York

Related contracts

PM Yes 96%Rules differK Yes 94.6%

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 New York gubernatorial election?

Kalshi: Will the Republican party win the governorship in New York

Related contracts

PM Yes 3.6%Rules differK Yes 5.7%

Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?

Kalshi: Will the Republican party win the governorship in New York

Related contracts

PM Yes 3.9%Rules differK Yes 5.7%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

3 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 4, 2026 UTC

PolymarketKalshiPolitics

Massachusetts Governor Election Margin of Victory

PM $186.6K · K 2.66M contracts

Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?

Kalshi: Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Massachusetts

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 95.5%Rules differK Yes 95%

Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?

Kalshi: Will the Republican party win the governorship in Massachusetts

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 4.3%Rules differK Yes 5.2%

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election?

Kalshi: Will the Republican party win the governorship in Massachusetts

Related contracts

PM Yes 5.1%Rules differK Yes 5.2%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

3 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 4, 2026 UTC

PolymarketKalshiPolitics

Pennsylvania Governor Election Margin of Victory

PM $87.2K · K 1.03M contracts

Will the Democrats win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026?

Kalshi: Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Pennsylvania

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 97.8%Rules differK Yes 97%

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election?

Kalshi: Will the Republican party win the governorship in Pennsylvania

Related contracts

PM Yes 1.3%Rules differK Yes 3.1%

Will the Republicans win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026?

Kalshi: Will the Republican party win the governorship in Pennsylvania

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 2.3%Rules differK Yes 3.1%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

3 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 4, 2026 UTC

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Nov 04, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC

Market Insights

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Largest saved gap: 3.0 percentage points.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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Will Arkansas be the closest Governor's race in 2026?

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Closest Governor race in 2026?

Closest Senate Race?

Markets (30)

Will Kansas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?

Will Nevada have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?

Will Texas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?

Will Georgia have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?

Will Iowa have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?

Related prediction markets

Arizona Governor winner?

Rhode Island Governor Election Margin of Victory

Michigan Governor winner?

New York Governor Election Margin of Victory

Massachusetts Governor Election Margin of Victory

Pennsylvania Governor Election Margin of Victory

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Will Arkansas be the closest Governor's race in 2026?

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Closest Governor race in 2026?

Closest Senate Race?

Will Kansas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?

Will Nevada have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?

Will Texas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?

Will Georgia have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?

Will Iowa have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?

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