Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET
PM $0
1
1
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET
PM $0
1
1
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $0
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-26T03:00:05.873Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This contract covers a single Bitcoin price window, titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET" [1]. It resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, over that range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of the range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The named resolution source is the BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that other sources or spot markets do not determine the outcome [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-27T01:45:00.000Z [1]. That is the contract's closing time, not a resolution that has occurred. The evidence does not include a resolution result.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed the market at 2026-10-26T03:00:05.873Z, and our retrieval occurred later, at 2026-10-26T05:34:31.935Z [1]. These prices describe that earlier observation only. They do not describe current conditions.
At observation, the saved prices were 0.505 for "Up" and 0.495 for "Down" [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The two prices sum to 1.00 in this sample, and the market was listed as active [1].
The sample contains one market from one platform, Polymarket, and it is not partial: the saved event includes its only market [1]. Because there is no second contract or platform in the evidence, no cross-platform comparison is possible. Volume and the number of traders are not in the supplied data, so the snapshot says nothing about liquidity or how many participants hold each view.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show why the prices were where they were, nor whether they have changed since the observation. It also does not establish the Bitcoin price at the start of the window or the TWAP during it. Those values would determine the outcome, and they are absent here.
Readers comparing this contract with others should check the wording, resolution source, and listed close time for each, since these details define what each price measures. The sample notes that all saved markets are included, but this does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome for this question.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-26T03:00:05.873Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 26, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-interval price contract listed on Polymarket. Its title names the window as 9:40PM to 9:45PM Eastern Time on October 26, and the contract asks whether Bitcoin's price moves up or down across that window [1]. The rules decide the outcome by comparing two values. The market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin over the window is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that window. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. Because the comparison uses an average over the window rather than a single moment, a short-term rise at the end of the window does not by itself settle the market as Up. The rules name Chainlink as the source of the price data and point to its BTC/USD TWAP data stream as the resolution source [1]. They also state that the contract concerns the price in that Chainlink data stream only, not prices from other sources or spot markets [1]. A reader comparing this contract with a Bitcoin price on another exchange should therefore expect the two to differ in what they measure. The provider record lists the market as active, with a listed end time of 01:45 UTC on October 27 [1]. That time comes from the contract's listing and marks when the window closes under the rules. It does not show that the market has resolved or report how it resolved.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of Bitcoin's price over one five-minute window, as defined by an average price from a single named data stream [1]. Users can see from the rules exactly which price feed and comparison determine the result, which is the main point of reading the contract before interpreting its listed price. The rules do not describe how the market is used, how many people trade it, or how it compares with other Bitcoin contracts.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-26 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this market resolves Up or Down?
It resolves to Up if the Chainlink TWAP of Bitcoin over the stated window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window, and to Down otherwise [1].
Which price source is used for settlement?
The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream [1].
Do prices from other exchanges or spot markets affect the outcome?
No. The rules state that the market concerns only the Chainlink TWAP data stream and not other sources or spot markets [1].
What does the listed end time mean?
The provider lists an end time of 01:45 UTC on October 27 for this contract [1]. It marks the close of the window under the listing and does not show when or how the market resolved.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET
PM $0Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET
PM $0Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET
PM $0Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET
PM $0Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET
PM $0Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET
PM $0Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.