Name: What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at in January?
End: 2026-01-31T00:00:00.000Z

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What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at in January? | PredictPedia

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Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,000-$7,100 in January?

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Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,000-$7,100 in January?	Poly	39%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,100-$7,200 in January?	Poly	38%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,800-$6,900 in January?	Poly	27%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,700-$6,800 in January?	Poly	25%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,900-$7,000 in January?	Poly	23%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,700 in January?	Poly	6%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at >$7,200 in January?	Poly	3%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at in January?
**Category:** Finance | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 31, 2026 (15 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of January 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If no official closing price is published for that sessi

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of January 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $159
* **Total Liquidity:** $951
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.17)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,700 in January?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $42
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,700-$6,800 in January?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $6
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,800-$6,900 in January?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,000-$7,100 in January?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 38.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,100-$7,200 in January?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 37.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,900-$7,000 in January?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $87
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at >$7,200 in January?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $24
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

14d 12h remaining

Jan 31, 2026 12:00 AM

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23¢

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Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,000-$7,100 in January?

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Events (1)

What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at in January?

Markets (7)

Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,000-$7,100 in January?

Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,000-$7,100 in January?

Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,100-$7,200 in January?

Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,100-$7,200 in January?

Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,800-$6,900 in January?

Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,800-$6,900 in January?

Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,700-$6,800 in January?

Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,700-$6,800 in January?

Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,900-$7,000 in January?

Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,900-$7,000 in January?

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Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,000-$7,100 in January?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at in January?

Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,000-$7,100 in January?

Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,000-$7,100 in January?

Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,100-$7,200 in January?

Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,100-$7,200 in January?

Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,800-$6,900 in January?

Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,800-$6,900 in January?

Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,700-$6,800 in January?

Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,700-$6,800 in January?

Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,900-$7,000 in January?

Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,900-$7,000 in January?

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