Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Hungary rate decision in October

Total Volume

$27.43K

Events

Markets

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Hungary rate decision in October

Vol

$27.43K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $27.43K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $27.43K

100%

Kalshi leads

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5 markets tracked

Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank maintain the current rate at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?

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Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank maintain the current rate at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?	Kalshi	99%
Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank cut 1-25bps at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?	Kalshi	24%
Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank cut more than 25bps at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?	Kalshi	5%
Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank hike 1-25bps at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?	Kalshi	2%
Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank hike more than 25bps at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

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99%

Top Probability

$27.43K

Volume

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About This Event

Oct 20, 2026 meeting If the Magyar Nemzeti Bank takes the action of X more than 25bps at the October Monetary Council policy meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "Maintain current rate" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Hungary rate decision in October
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Oct 20, 2026 meeting

If the Magyar Nemzeti Bank takes the action of X more than 25bps at the October Monetary Council policy meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "Maintain current rate" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Magyar Nemzeti Bank takes the action of maintain current rate at the October Monetary Council policy meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $27.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank maintain the current rate at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2026): Vol $5.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank hike more than 25bps at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2026): Vol $9.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank hike 1-25bps at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2026): Vol $8.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank cut more than 25bps at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2026): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank cut 1-25bps at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Hungary rate decision in October

Volume$27.43K

Markets5

5 of 5

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KALSHI

Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank maintain the current rate at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.0¢No 1.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank maintain the current rate at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?

If the Magyar Nemzeti Bank takes the action of maintain current rate at the October Monetary Council policy meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy

KALSHI

Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank cut 1-25bps at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 24.0¢No 76.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank cut 1-25bps at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?

If the Magyar Nemzeti Bank takes the action of cut 1-25bps at the October Monetary Council policy meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, onl

KALSHI

Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank cut more than 25bps at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank cut more than 25bps at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?

If the Magyar Nemzeti Bank takes the action of cut more than 25bps at the October Monetary Council policy meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy ra

KALSHI

Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank hike 1-25bps at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 1.5¢No 98.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank hike 1-25bps at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?

If the Magyar Nemzeti Bank takes the action of hike 1-25bps at the October Monetary Council policy meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, on

KALSHI

Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank hike more than 25bps at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank hike more than 25bps at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?

If the Magyar Nemzeti Bank takes the action of hike more than 25bps at the October Monetary Council policy meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy r

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Hungary rate decision in October

Hungary rate decision in October

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Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank maintain the current rate at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?

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Events (1)

Hungary rate decision in October

Markets (5)

Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank maintain the current rate at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?

Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank maintain the current rate at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?

Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank cut 1-25bps at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?

Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank cut 1-25bps at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?

Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank cut more than 25bps at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?

Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank cut more than 25bps at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?

Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank hike 1-25bps at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?

Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank hike 1-25bps at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?

Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank hike more than 25bps at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?

Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank hike more than 25bps at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?

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Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank maintain the current rate at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Hungary rate decision in October

Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank maintain the current rate at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?

Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank maintain the current rate at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?

Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank cut 1-25bps at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?

Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank cut 1-25bps at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?

Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank cut more than 25bps at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?

Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank cut more than 25bps at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?

Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank hike 1-25bps at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?

Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank hike 1-25bps at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?

Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank hike more than 25bps at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?

Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank hike more than 25bps at the October Monetary Council policy meeting?

Related News & Context

Discussion

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