This prediction market asks whether former U.S. President Donald Trump will have a conversation with Mojtaba Khamenei, a senior Iranian political figure and son of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, by March 31, 2026. The market resolves based on any confirmed verbal interaction, including in-person meetings, phone calls, or video conferences, as reported by credible media consensus. The question sits at the intersection of U.S. foreign policy, Iranian domestic power structures, and the potential for unconventional diplomatic channels. Interest stems from the historically adversarial U.S.-Iran relationship, Trump's unique approach to diplomacy during his presidency, and the opaque but influential role Mojtaba Khamenei plays within Iran's political system. Recent speculation about back-channel communications and the potential for a future Trump administration to seek a new deal with Iran has made this a subject of analysis. Observers are watching whether Trump, known for direct engagement with foreign leaders, might attempt to bypass traditional diplomatic protocols to engage with a figure seen as a potential future successor to the Supreme Leader.

Historical Context

U.S.-Iran relations have been hostile since the 1979 Islamic Revolution and the subsequent 444-day hostage crisis at the U.S. embassy in Tehran. For decades, direct high-level contact was exceptionally rare. A significant precedent was the 2013 secret back-channel talks between U.S. and Iranian officials in Oman, which were authorized by President Barack Obama and paved the way for the formal JCPOA negotiations. These talks were conducted without public knowledge for months. During the Trump administration, communication was largely limited to threats and public statements, culminating in the January 2020 U.S. drone strike that killed IRGC Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani. Iran responded with missile strikes on U.S. forces in Iraq. In 2023, the two countries engaged in indirect negotiations, mediated by Oman and Qatar, which resulted in a prisoner swap and the unfreezing of $6 billion in Iranian oil revenue. These deals demonstrated that transactional agreements were possible even without diplomatic relations.

Frequently Asked Questions