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Events
GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Women's Ballon d'Or Winner 2026

Women's Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
Vol

PM $56.2K · K 4.8K contracts

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Events

2

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Markets

50

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $56.2K · K 4.8K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

50

Saved contracts

0

Reviewed equivalent pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC

About This Event

Women's Ballon d'Or If X wins 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or for 2025-26 season, 2026 award, then the market resolves to Yes. If multiple recipients are announced and no separate Tie/Co-Winners market is listed, Yes contracts on each recipient resolve to $1 divided by the number of tied recipients; all other participant markets resolve to No. If no award is given, all participant markets resolve to No. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the governing league. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire early after the event occurs.

This saved analysis is awaiting a background update. Its prices and claims may be outdated; compare them with the dated market data above.

Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This market is titled "Women's Ballon d'Or Winner 2026." According to the rules, it "will resolve according to the player who is officially named the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or winner" [1]. The source names France Football as the primary resolution source and allows "A consensus of credible reporting" as a supplement [1]. The rules also state that the 2026 ceremony "is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026" [1]. That date comes from the contract text and is not a confirmed announcement of the result.

The fallback rule matters for reading any price. If no winner is announced by "December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET," the market resolves to "Other" [1]. A quoted "Yes" price on an individual player therefore reflects that player's contract, not a guaranteed outcome.

The listed end time for these contracts is 2026-10-27T03:59:00Z [1]. This is the provider's listed close time, not a record of when a winner was named.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-15T16:13:13Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-15T18:21:25Z. These are snapshots, not live quotes, and they are not executable prices. Each "Yes" price is a single contract price shown in the sample.

The sample includes 12 of 20 markets from this provider event. Markets were ordered by finite "Yes" price, then by volume, so the table shows only the included contracts. The quoted "Yes" prices are 0.9385 for Alexia Putellas, 0.0345 for Ewa Pajor, 0.013 for Claudia Pina, and 0.008 for Caroline Graham Hansen, with lower prices for the remaining included players. Nothing in this sample supports a claim about the excluded markets.

Each contract is separate. A difference in price between two players' contracts does not establish an arbitrage opportunity, because the rules, fees, and execution conditions were not supplied.

What remains uncertain

The supplied evidence does not show why any price changed, how many traders hold each position, or whether any outcome has been announced. Volume is not a measure of liquidity or trader count. The sample does not include the "Other" contract, so its price is unknown from this record. Readers should check the official rules and the current provider page before relying on any figure.

References

  1. Polymarket: Women's Ballon d'Or Winner 2026. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTC

Overview

This PredictPedia contract asks who will be officially named the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or winner. The Ballon d'Or is an annual association football award presented by the French magazine France Football since 1956 to honour the player judged to have performed the best over the previous season [3]. The 2026 edition is described as the 70th annual ceremony of the award, recognising footballers in the 2025-26 season [2]. The contract is tied to the ceremony itself. The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026 [1][2]. The source for the award's season is also unusual: for the fifth time in the award's history, it is based on the results of a season rather than a calendar year. The period covered runs from 3 August 2025 to 19 July 2026 [2]. Readers should keep this scheduled date separate from any result. The contract's resolution depends on an official naming, not on the scheduled date alone [1]. The market's listed end time is 2026-10-27T03:59:00.000Z [1]. The provider's listed end time is a date in the contract's data, and it is not evidence that a winner has been named.

Historical Context

France Football has presented the Ballon d'Or since 1956 [3]. The 2026 ceremony is described as the 70th annual edition [2]. The award's move to a season-based period for the fifth time means the 2026 award covers 3 August 2025 to 19 July 2026 rather than a calendar year [2]. The supplied sources do not provide a longer history of the women's category or prior winners, so that background is not covered here.

Why It Matters

The contract measures which player will be officially named the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or winner. The primary resolution source is official information from France Football, and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. If no 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or winner is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. Because the outcome list is taken from a saved provider event with twenty markets and only twelve included in this sample, the prices shown are one slice of the contract rather than the complete field [1].

Snapshot context

The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]

Frequently Asked Questions

What determines how this contract resolves?

The market resolves according to the player officially named the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or winner. The primary resolution source is official information from France Football, and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].

What happens if no winner is announced by the deadline?

If no 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or winner is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other" [1].

When is the ceremony?

The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026 [1][2]. The scheduled date is not itself a result.

Does a low price for a player mean that player has no chance?

Not necessarily. Prices are snapshots from a partial sample of the saved event, not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1]. An omitted candidate should not be assumed to have a lower price than those shown.

Was this helpful?
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTC

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketSports
Women's Ballon d'Or Top 10 Finish 2026

Women's Ballon d'Or Top 10 Finish 2026

PM $24.3K
Will Ewa Pajor finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or?Yes 99%
Will Alexia Putellas finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or?Yes 98.2%
Will Melchie Dumornay finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or?Yes 95%
+27 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
PolymarketSports
Women's Ballon d'Or Top 5 Finish 2026

Women's Ballon d'Or Top 5 Finish 2026

PM $9.4K
Will Alexia Putellas finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or?Yes 99%
Will Melchie Dumornay finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or?Yes 97.5%
Will Ewa Pajor finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or?Yes 93.5%
+27 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
PolymarketSports
Women's Ballon d'Or Top 3 Finish 2026

Women's Ballon d'Or Top 3 Finish 2026

PM $3.7K
Will Alexia Putellas finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or?Yes 88.6%
Will Melchie Dumornay finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or?Yes 72.5%
Will Ewa Pajor finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or?Yes 72%
+27 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
PolymarketKalshiSports
Ballon d'Or Top 10 Finish 2026

Ballon d'Or Top 10 Finish 2026

PM $52.76M · K 15.59M contracts

Will Harry Kane finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Kalshi: Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026? (Harry Kane)

Related contracts

PM Yes 99.6%Rules differK Yes 63.5%

Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Kalshi: Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026? (Lamine Yamal)

Related contracts

PM Yes 99.6%Rules differK Yes 29.5%

Will Kylian Mbappé finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Kalshi: Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026? (Kylian Mbappe)

Related contracts

PM Yes 99%Rules differK Yes 4.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

106 saved comparisonsNext deadline Oct 31, 2026 UTC
PolymarketKalshiSports
Ballon d'Or 2026: Top 3 Finishers

Ballon d'Or 2026: Top 3 Finishers

PM $510.7K · K 40.5K contracts

Will Harry Kane finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Kalshi: Harry Kane: Top 3 in the 2026 men's Ballon d'Or?

Related contracts

PM Yes 97.3%Rules differK Yes 96.5%

Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Kalshi: Lamine Yamal: Top 3 in the 2026 men's Ballon d'Or?

Related contracts

PM Yes 83.2%Rules differK Yes 85.5%

Will Kylian Mbappé finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Kalshi: Kylian Mbappé: Top 3 in the 2026 men's Ballon d'Or?

Related contracts

PM Yes 75.5%Rules differK Yes 80.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

19 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 10, 2026 UTC
KalshiSports
Division I Women's Volleyball Champion

Division I Women's Volleyball Champion

K 20.9K contracts
Nebraska wins the 2026 NCAA women's volleyball championshipYes 45.5%
Pittsburgh wins the 2026 NCAA women's volleyball championshipYes 16.5%
Kentucky wins the 2026 NCAA women's volleyball championshipYes 13.5%
+46 moreNext deadline Jan 7, 2027 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

0

Reviewed equivalent pairs

0

No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.