Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Argentina presidential election: first round winner?

Total Volume

$21.59K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Argentina presidential election: first round winner?

Vol

$21.59K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $21.59K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $21.59K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will Javier Milei win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Javier Milei win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?	Kalshi	63%
Will Axel Kicillof win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?	Kalshi	18%
Will Victoria Villarruel win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?	Kalshi	4%
Will Sergio Massa win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?	Kalshi	4%
Will Myriam Bregman win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?	Kalshi	2%
Will Juan Schiaretti win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?	Kalshi	2%
Will Juan Grabois win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?	Kalshi	2%
Will Patricia Bullrich win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?	Kalshi	2%
Will Mauricio Macri win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

63%

Top Probability

$21.59K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

2027 Argentine presidential election If X wins the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. For elections with runoffs or multiple rounds: if the market does not specify a round, the winner is the ultimate victor of the election. If the market designates a specific round, the winner is the candidate elected in that round or, if the election is not decided in that round, the candidate receiving a plurality of votes in that round, in each case rega

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Argentina presidential election: first round winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2027 Argentine presidential election

If X wins the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. For elections with runoffs or multiple rounds: if the market does not specify a round, the winner is the ultimate victor of the election. If the market designates a specific round, the winner is the candidate elected in that round or, if the election is not decided in that round, the candidate receiving a plurality of votes in that round, in each case rega

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Victoria Villarruel wins the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For elections with runoffs or multiple rounds: if the market does not specify a round, the winner is the ultimate victor of the election. If the market designate"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $21.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Victoria Villarruel win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 23, 2028): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Sergio Massa win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 23, 2028): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Patricia Bullrich win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 23, 2028): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Mauricio Macri win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 23, 2028): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Myriam Bregman win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 23, 2028): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Juan Schiaretti win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 23, 2028): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Javier Milei win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 23, 2028): Vol $10.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 62.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 37.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Juan Grabois win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 23, 2028): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Axel Kicillof win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 23, 2028): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Argentina presidential election: first round winner?

Volume$21.59K

Markets9

9 of 9

Sort:

KALSHI

Will Javier Milei win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 62.5¢No 37.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Javier Milei win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?

If Javier Milei wins the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For elections with runoffs or multiple rounds: if the market does not specify a round, the winner is the ultimate victor of the election. If the market designates a spe

KALSHI

Will Axel Kicillof win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 17.5¢No 82.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Axel Kicillof win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?

If Axel Kicillof wins the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For elections with runoffs or multiple rounds: if the market does not specify a round, the winner is the ultimate victor of the election. If the market designates a sp

KALSHI

Will Victoria Villarruel win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.0¢No 96.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Victoria Villarruel win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?

If Victoria Villarruel wins the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For elections with runoffs or multiple rounds: if the market does not specify a round, the winner is the ultimate victor of the election. If the market designate

KALSHI

Will Sergio Massa win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Sergio Massa win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?

If Sergio Massa wins the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For elections with runoffs or multiple rounds: if the market does not specify a round, the winner is the ultimate victor of the election. If the market designates a spe

KALSHI

Will Myriam Bregman win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.0¢No 98.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Myriam Bregman win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?

If Myriam Bregman wins the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For elections with runoffs or multiple rounds: if the market does not specify a round, the winner is the ultimate victor of the election. If the market designates a s

No related news found

Discussion

0 Comments

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

11¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/uNhU4U" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Argentina presidential election: first round winner?"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi

Argentina presidential election: first round winner?

Argentina presidential election: first round winner?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Javier Milei win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Argentina presidential election: first round winner?

Markets (9)

Will Javier Milei win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?

Will Javier Milei win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?

Will Axel Kicillof win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?

Will Axel Kicillof win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?

Will Victoria Villarruel win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?

Will Victoria Villarruel win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?

Will Sergio Massa win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?

Will Sergio Massa win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?

Will Myriam Bregman win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?

Will Myriam Bregman win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Market Insights

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Javier Milei win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Argentina presidential election: first round winner?

Will Javier Milei win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?

Will Javier Milei win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?

Will Axel Kicillof win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?

Will Axel Kicillof win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?

Will Victoria Villarruel win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?

Will Victoria Villarruel win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?

Will Sergio Massa win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?

Will Sergio Massa win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?

Will Myriam Bregman win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?

Will Myriam Bregman win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

Embed Widget