Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 30, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-30T12:00:07.014Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket contract covers the window named in its title, "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET" [1]. According to the saved rules, it resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down" [1]. The named resolution source is the BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the contract concerns that feed "not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-31T05:05:00.000Z [1]. This is the listed close time, not a confirmed resolution, and the evidence does not show when or how settlement will occur.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed this market at 2026-10-30T12:00:07Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-30T13:21:40Z [1]. The prices therefore describe the saved observation, not conditions at the time you read this. The saved outcome prices are Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices rather than executable quotes, so they should not be read as verified probabilities or as a price a trader could obtain. The saved record includes no volume or liquidity figures, so it says nothing about depth or participation.
The sample covers one market from one provider event, and the record does not flag a partial sample [1]. Because only this contract is included, this snapshot offers no basis for comparing it with other contracts or platforms.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices sit where they do. It also contains no post-observation prices, no outcome data, and no actual TWAP values, so it cannot show how the contract will resolve. Readers comparing this contract with differently worded markets should check each resolution source, measurement window, and listed close time separately, since wording differences change what each contract measures.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-30T12:00:07.014Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 30, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term Bitcoin price contract on Polymarket titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET." The contract is categorized under crypto and is identified in the provider record as active [1]. Its structure is simple: it asks whether Bitcoin's price over one specific five-minute window will finish above or below where that window began. The resolution rule is the core of the contract. According to the provider, the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The provider names the resolution source as Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream and states that the market concerns only that data stream, not other sources or spot markets [1]. A reader should therefore treat the contract as a question about that specific oracle-based measure rather than about Bitcoin's price on any particular exchange. The contract's listed end time is 2026-10-31T05:05:00Z [1]. That is the time the provider lists for the market to close. It is not a record of when the market was resolved, and the provider evidence here does not show a resolution outcome. The only market data in this entry is a single snapshot for the one outcome pair in the event. In that snapshot, the "Up" outcome was priced at 0.505 and the "Down" outcome at 0.495 [1]. These are observed prices at a past moment, not current prices, and they are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Because the event contains only this one market, no comparison with other contracts is possible from this entry.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a particular Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP measure over a five-minute window, from 1:00 AM to 1:05 AM ET on October 31, is greater than or equal to the window's starting price [1]. Because the measure is time-weighted and tied to one data stream, the contract's outcome depends on that specific calculation. Movements on other exchanges or spot markets do not determine the result, according to the provider's rules [1]. Understanding the rule is therefore more important than the displayed prices, which are a single past snapshot.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-30 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does an "Up" outcome mean in this contract?
According to the provider, "Up" wins if the Chainlink time-weighted average price of Bitcoin over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
What does a "Down" outcome mean?
The provider states that the market resolves to "Down" when the condition for "Up" is not met, meaning the time-weighted average over the range is below the price at the start of the range [1].
Which price source determines the result?
The resolution source is Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream. The provider says the market is about that data stream and not about any other sources or spot markets [1].
When does this contract close?
The provider lists the end time as 2026-10-31T05:05:00Z [1]. This is the listed end time and does not by itself confirm how or when the market resolved.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.