Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...? | PredictPedia

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Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?

Name: Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$104.41M

Events

Markets

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Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?

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Polymarket

markets · $104.41M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $104.41M

100%

Polymarket leads

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1 market tracked

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?	Poly	100%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

100%

Top Probability

$104.41M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation wit

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, May 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2026 (46 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.

Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation wit

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, thi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $90.38M
* **Total Liquidity:** $7.05M
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 12.83)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 15, 2026): Vol $90.38M
  DATA: [Yes: 100.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.1% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

45d 12h remaining

Jun 30, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

100¢

Polymarket

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/uS83Cs" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?"></iframe>

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Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?

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Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)