Will the independence of the judiciary be weakened during Trump's term? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Will the independence of the judiciary be weakened during Trump's term?

Total Volume

$992.00

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will the independence of the judiciary be weakened during Trump's term?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $992.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $992.00

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will the independence of the judiciary be weakened during Trump's term?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the independence of the judiciary be weakened during Trump's term?	Kalshi	23%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

23%

Top Probability

$992.00

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before 2029 If 1) an executive order alters the structure of the judiciary, 2) a bill becomes law that undermines judicial independence, or 3) any federal judges are removed outside of the impeachment process, before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Please see full rules for details on what actions are included in the Payout Criterion. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will the independence of the judiciary be weakened during Trump's term?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2029

If 1) an executive order alters the structure of the judiciary, 2) a bill becomes law that undermines judicial independence, or 3) any federal judges are removed outside of the impeachment process, before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Please see full rules for details on what actions are included in the Payout Criterion. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If 1) an executive order alters the structure of the judiciary, 2) a bill becomes law that undermines judicial independence, or 3) any federal judges are removed outside of the impeachment process, before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Please see full rules for detai"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $992
* **Total Liquidity:** $579.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the independence of the judiciary be weakened during Trump's term?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $992
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

23¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/uSsl9w" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will the independence of the judiciary be weakened during Trump's term?"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi

Will the independence of the judiciary be weakened during Trump's term?

Will the independence of the judiciary be weakened during Trump's term?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the independence of the judiciary be weakened during Trump's term?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)