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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 2?

Name: Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 2?
End: 2026-05-02T12:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$12.28K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 2?

Vol

$12.28K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $12.28K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $12.28K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 2?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 2?	Poly	48%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 2?	Poly	46%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 2?	Poly	4%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on May 2?	Poly	1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 18°C or below on May 2?	Poly	1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 2?	Poly	0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 2?	Poly	0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on May 2?	Poly	0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C on May 2?	Poly	0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 2?	Poly	0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on May 2?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

48%

Top Probability

$12.28K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this dat

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 2?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 2, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this dat

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $12.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $21.7K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.57)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 18°C or below on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $697
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $364
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $538
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $816
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $500
  DATA: [Yes: 45.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 48.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $410
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $419
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate