The topic concerns whether the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) will issue a new combined license (COL) for a new nuclear power facility before January 1, 2027. A combined license authorizes both construction and operation of a nuclear reactor in one step, a process introduced by the Energy Policy Act of 1992 and first used in the 2010s. The market resolves to Yes if the NRC issues such a license before 2027, with early closure if the event occurs. This prediction market reflects growing interest in new nuclear builds, particularly small modular reactors (SMRs) and advanced reactor designs, as the U.S. seeks to decarbonize its electricity grid and meet rising power demand from data centers and manufacturing. Recent developments include the NRC's certification of the NuScale SMR design in 2023 (the first SMR design certified in the U.S.), the first new nuclear construction in decades at Plant Vogtle (which received its COL in 2012 and began commercial operation in 2023-2024), and the ongoing pre-application and application reviews for several SMR projects, including NuScale's UAMPS project in Idaho and Kairos Power's Hermes reactor in Tennessee. The NRC's current licensing framework is under scrutiny for its length and cost, with the agency aiming to streamline reviews for advanced reactors. Enthusiasts and investors watch this market as a proxy for the pace of nuclear innovation and regulatory reform, while critics argue that the NRC's cautious approach may delay new licenses beyond 2027. The outcome has implications for the nuclear industry's credibility, the viability of SMR commercialization, and the U.S.'s ability to meet climate goals. Understanding the NRC's licensing process, the status of pending applications, and the political and economic pressures can help interpret the likelihood of a new COL before 2027.

Historical Context

The NRC's combined license (COL) process was introduced in 1989 through 10 CFR Part 52, as an alternative to the two-step process of separate construction permits and operating licenses. The first COL applications were submitted in the late 2000s for projects like Vogtle and V.C. Summer, but the process was not used until 2012, when the NRC issued COLs for Vogtle Units 3 and 4 and Summer Units 2 and 3. However, the Summer project was canceled in 2017 after cost overruns, and Vogtle's construction faced significant delays, with the final cost exceeding $30 billion. Since then, no new COLs have been issued. The NRC also certified several new reactor designs, including the AP1000 (2011) and the NuScale SMR (2023), but the lack of new COLs reflects the high capital costs and regulatory uncertainty. In 2023, the NRC proposed a new Part 53 rule for advanced reactors, which aims to create a more flexible, risk-informed framework, but it has not yet been finalized. The 2024 Inflation Reduction Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law provided tax credits and funding for nuclear, but these do not directly speed up licensing. The historical context shows that the NRC's licensing process is lengthy (often 5-10 years), and no new COL is expected before 2027 unless a design already in review moves quickly, such as the NuScale UAMPS project, which was suspended, or new applications from companies like Kairos Power, which are still in early stages.