This prediction market topic concerns whether the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) will issue a new combined license (COL) for a new nuclear power facility before the end of 2026. A combined license is a single NRC authorization that permits both the construction and conditional operation of a new nuclear reactor. The topic is significant because it tracks the potential revival of new nuclear power plant construction in the U.S., which has been stagnant for decades. The last new reactor to begin construction, Vogtle Units 3 and 4 in Georgia, received its COL in 2012, with Unit 3 only entering commercial operation in 2023. The question of a new license before 2027 hinges on the progress of several advanced reactor designs and the regulatory and financial hurdles they must overcome. Interest in this topic stems from the intersection of climate policy, energy security, and technological innovation. The Biden administration has identified nuclear power as a critical component of its clean energy strategy, with initiatives like the Civil Nuclear Credit program and funding for advanced reactor demonstrations through the Department of Energy's Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program (ARDP). Private companies are developing smaller, modular designs that promise faster construction and lower costs than traditional large reactors. The market outcome will serve as a key indicator of whether these policy supports and technological advancements can translate into tangible regulatory approval for a new plant within this timeframe.

Historical Context

The licensing of new nuclear reactors in the United States has followed a complex historical path. For decades, the process involved a two-step approach: first a construction permit, then a separate operating license. This changed with the NRC's adoption of the combined license process in 1989, designed to provide more regulatory certainty by granting a single license for both construction and conditional operation. The first COLs were issued in 2012 for Southern Company's Vogtle Units 3 and 4 in Georgia and SCANA's V.C. Summer Units 2 and 3 in South Carolina. The V.C. Summer project was abandoned in 2017 after cost overruns, while Vogtle faced significant delays and cost escalation, with Unit 3 entering service in 2023 and Unit 4 in 2024. These experiences cast a long shadow over the economics of new large, traditional reactor builds. The last completely new reactor to enter service before Vogtle was the Watts Bar Unit 2 in Tennessee in 2016, but its construction began in 1973. This history of prolonged construction, high costs, and project cancellations created a 'nuclear winter' for new builds, shifting industry and policy focus toward advanced, smaller reactor designs that promise to avoid the pitfalls of the past. The current push for a new COL before 2027 is therefore an attempt to break a 15-year drought in new reactor licensing and to validate a new generation of nuclear technology.

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