This prediction market addresses the probability of at least one major natural disaster occurring during the 2026 calendar year, as defined by four specific catastrophic thresholds. The market resolves to 'Yes' if a Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the United States, a major meteor with an impact energy of 10 kilotons or greater strikes Earth, a volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs, or an earthquake of magnitude 8.5 or greater is recorded anywhere in the world. These events represent some of the most powerful and destructive forces on the planet, each capable of causing immense loss of life and economic damage. The market's extended resolution deadline of February 28, 2027, accounts for potential delays in the scientific verification of such events, particularly for earthquakes and volcanic eruptions where data analysis can take months. Interest in this market stems from both scientific concern over increasing disaster risks and financial speculation on low-probability, high-impact events. Climate change is intensifying hurricane activity, while planetary defense agencies actively monitor near-Earth objects. The market aggregates collective intelligence on the likelihood of a truly catastrophic year for natural disasters, providing a quantified measure of perceived risk that complements traditional scientific forecasts.

Historical Context

Historical precedents exist for each disaster type specified in the market. The last Category 5 hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. was Hurricane Michael in 2018, which struck the Florida Panhandle. Prior to that, Hurricane Andrew in 1992 devastated South Florida. For major meteor impacts, the 2013 Chelyabinsk event over Russia is a recent example, estimated at 440-500 kilotons, far exceeding the market's 10kt threshold, though it did not result in a ground strike with a crater. The last confirmed VEI 6 eruption was Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991, which cooled global temperatures for years. The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines was a VEI 6 event that had measurable global climatic impacts. Significant earthquakes of magnitude 8.5 or greater are rare but have occurred multiple times this century. The 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake was a magnitude 9.1-9.3 event, triggering a devastating tsunami. More recently, a magnitude 8.8 earthquake struck Chile in 2010, and a magnitude 9.0 earthquake hit Japan in 2011. The frequency and clustering of such mega-earthquakes are active areas of seismological research. The year 2026 itself has no specific historical prophecy or cycle associated with it, making this a pure assessment of contemporary geophysical and climatic risks.

Frequently Asked Questions