Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Arizona Governor: which counties will Katie Hobbs win?

Total Volume

$10.40K

Events

Markets

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Arizona Governor: which counties will Katie Hobbs win?

Vol

$10.40K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $10.40K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $10.40K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will Katie Hobbs win Maricopa County?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Katie Hobbs win Maricopa County?	Kalshi	93%
Will Katie Hobbs win Navajo County?	Kalshi	24%
Will Katie Hobbs win Yuma County?	Kalshi	14%
Will Katie Hobbs win Pinal County?	Kalshi	9%
Will Katie Hobbs win Cochise County?	Kalshi	7%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

93%

Top Probability

$10.40K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

In 2026 If Katie Hobbs wins the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial general election X then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Arizona Governor: which counties will Katie Hobbs win?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If Katie Hobbs wins the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial general election X then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Katie Hobbs wins the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial general election in Yuma County, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $10.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Katie Hobbs win Yuma County?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $4.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Katie Hobbs win Pinal County?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $400
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Katie Hobbs win Navajo County?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $4.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Katie Hobbs win Maricopa County?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $542
  DATA: [Yes: 93.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Katie Hobbs win Cochise County?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $494
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Arizona Governor: which counties will Katie Hobbs win?

Volume$10.40K

Markets5

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KALSHI

Will Katie Hobbs win Maricopa County?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 93.0¢No 7.0¢

KALSHISports

Will Katie Hobbs win Maricopa County?

If Katie Hobbs wins the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial general election in Maricopa County, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close conditi

KALSHI

Will Katie Hobbs win Navajo County?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 24.0¢No 76.0¢

KALSHISports

Will Katie Hobbs win Navajo County?

If Katie Hobbs wins the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial general election in Navajo County, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition

KALSHI

Will Katie Hobbs win Yuma County?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 14.0¢No 86.0¢

KALSHISports

Will Katie Hobbs win Yuma County?

If Katie Hobbs wins the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial general election in Yuma County, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition:

KALSHI

Will Katie Hobbs win Pinal County?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 8.5¢No 91.5¢

KALSHISports

Will Katie Hobbs win Pinal County?

If Katie Hobbs wins the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial general election in Pinal County, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition:

KALSHI

Will Katie Hobbs win Cochise County?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 7.0¢No 93.0¢

KALSHISports

Will Katie Hobbs win Cochise County?

If Katie Hobbs wins the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial general election in Cochise County, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close conditio

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Average Yes Price

29¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/u_HMhc" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Arizona Governor: which counties will Katie Hobbs win?"></iframe>

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Arizona Governor: which counties will Katie Hobbs win?

Arizona Governor: which counties will Katie Hobbs win?

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Will Katie Hobbs win Maricopa County?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Arizona Governor: which counties will Katie Hobbs win?

Markets (5)

Will Katie Hobbs win Maricopa County?

Will Katie Hobbs win Maricopa County?

Will Katie Hobbs win Navajo County?

Will Katie Hobbs win Navajo County?

Will Katie Hobbs win Yuma County?

Will Katie Hobbs win Yuma County?

Will Katie Hobbs win Pinal County?

Will Katie Hobbs win Pinal County?

Will Katie Hobbs win Cochise County?

Will Katie Hobbs win Cochise County?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Katie Hobbs win Maricopa County?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Arizona Governor: which counties will Katie Hobbs win?

Will Katie Hobbs win Maricopa County?

Will Katie Hobbs win Maricopa County?

Will Katie Hobbs win Navajo County?

Will Katie Hobbs win Navajo County?

Will Katie Hobbs win Yuma County?

Will Katie Hobbs win Yuma County?

Will Katie Hobbs win Pinal County?

Will Katie Hobbs win Pinal County?

Will Katie Hobbs win Cochise County?

Will Katie Hobbs win Cochise County?

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Discussion

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