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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Colorado | Kalshi | 94% |
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Colorado | Kalshi | 5% |
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In 2026 If a representative X party is inaugurated as the governor of Colorado pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close early following the first person to be sworn in as governor pursuant to the 2026 gubernatorial election. This market will close early following the first person to be sworn in as governor pursuant to the 2026 gubernatorial election.
Prediction markets are pricing in an overwhelming likelihood that the Democratic Party will retain the Massachusetts governorship in the 2026 election. On Kalshi, the contract "Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Massachusetts" is trading at 95 cents, implying a 95% probability. This price suggests the market views a Democratic victory as nearly certain, with only a minimal 5% chance assigned to an upset by a Republican or independent candidate. The market has high confidence but is characterized by thin liquidity, with only $12,000 in total volume across two related markets.
Two structural political factors are the primary drivers of these steep odds. First, Massachusetts is one of the most consistently Democratic states in the nation. A Republican has not won a gubernatorial race there since Charlie Baker's re-election in 2018, and Baker himself was a notable moderate anomaly in a deep-blue state. The current governor, Maura Healey, is a Democrat. Second, the state's electoral history shows a profound partisan lean. Democrats hold every statewide elected office and command supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature. This creates a formidable political machine and donor base for any Democratic nominee, making the primary the de facto decisive contest.
The 95% probability leaves little room for movement, but the odds could shift if a significant, credible Republican candidate emerges with a moderate profile and substantial financial backing, reminiscent of the Charlie Baker model. A severe scandal or political crisis involving the Democratic incumbent administration or the eventual 2026 nominee could also open the door for a competitive race. Furthermore, a national political wave in 2026, though currently unforeseen, could impact even safe seats. The market will likely remain stable until candidate declarations and early polling begin in 2025, at which point the viability of any challenger will be tested.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The 2026 Colorado gubernatorial election will determine who serves as the state's chief executive from 2027 to 2031. This election is significant as it will mark the end of current Governor Jared Polis's second and final term, creating an open seat for the first time since 2018. Colorado has experienced substantial demographic and political shifts in recent decades, evolving from a Republican-leaning state to a Democratic stronghold in statewide elections, though with competitive elements in certain regions. The election will test whether Democrats can maintain their hold on the governor's office amid national political trends and state-specific issues like housing affordability, water management, and energy policy. Political observers are closely watching this race as an indicator of Colorado's political trajectory and its role in national politics leading up to the 2028 presidential election cycle. The outcome will also influence state-level policy implementation on key issues including education funding, transportation infrastructure, and environmental regulations.
Colorado's gubernatorial elections have followed distinct patterns over recent decades. From 1999 to 2007, the state had Republican governors (Bill Owens served two terms), but since 2007, Democrats have held the office for 16 consecutive years with Bill Ritter (2007-2011), John Hickenlooper (2011-2019), and Jared Polis (2019-2027). This Democratic dominance in gubernatorial races contrasts with Colorado's historical status as a swing state in presidential elections. The state voted for the Republican presidential candidate in every election from 1968 to 2004 except for 1992, when it supported Bill Clinton. However, since 2008, Colorado has voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in four consecutive elections, signaling a broader political realignment. The 2018 election of Jared Polis, the first openly gay man elected governor in U.S. history, marked a milestone and reflected the state's progressive shift on social issues. In the 2022 election, Polis won re-election by a landslide margin of 19 points, the largest victory for a Colorado gubernatorial candidate since 2002, suggesting strong incumbent popularity but leaving questions about whether this advantage will transfer to an open seat in 2026.
The 2026 Colorado gubernatorial election will determine control of a state government that manages a $40 billion annual budget and sets policy for nearly 6 million residents. The governor appoints heads of state agencies, influences judicial appointments, and can veto legislation, making the office crucial for implementing or blocking policy agendas on issues from climate change to tax reform. With Colorado facing persistent challenges including housing affordability crises in metro areas, water scarcity exacerbated by climate change, and transportation infrastructure needs, the election's outcome will directly impact how these issues are addressed. The governor also plays a key role in Colorado's position as a leader in renewable energy development and technology innovation, sectors that drive significant economic growth. Beyond state borders, Colorado's political direction influences regional policy in the Mountain West and serves as a bellwether for suburban voting trends nationally. The election could signal whether Democrats can maintain dominance in a state that was competitive just 15 years ago, or whether Republicans can develop a winning coalition in changing demographics.
As of late 2024, the 2026 Colorado gubernatorial race remains in its early stages with no declared candidates. Potential candidates from both parties are likely conducting private polling, fundraising assessments, and coalition-building in preparation for campaigns that will formally begin in 2025. The Democratic field is expected to be crowded given the open seat, with several statewide officeholders and members of Congress considering runs. Republicans are assessing whether to nominate a moderate candidate who can appeal to unaffiliated voters or a more conservative candidate who can energize the base. Fundraising networks are being activated, with attention on Colorado's unique campaign finance system that includes contribution limits and a voluntary spending cap program. The political environment may be influenced by the 2024 presidential election results and any ballot measures in the 2024 election that could mobilize specific voter groups.
The election will be held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. This follows the standard schedule for midterm elections, though it occurs in a year without a presidential election. The primary elections will likely be held in June 2026.
Candidates must be at least 30 years old, a U.S. citizen for at least 15 years, and a resident of Colorado for at least two years preceding the election. There are no term limits for the office itself, but consecutive terms are limited to two.
Key issues include housing affordability, particularly in the Front Range corridor, water management and conservation amid drought conditions, transportation infrastructure funding, education financing, and balancing energy development with environmental protection. These issues will likely dominate the 2026 gubernatorial campaign.
Unaffiliated voters, who make up nearly 45% of the electorate, can participate in either the Democratic or Republican primary election without registering with that party. They receive both primary ballots but can only return one, creating strategic considerations for candidates seeking to appeal beyond their party base.
The governor's annual salary is $123,192 as of 2024, set by the state legislature. This is supplemented by an official residence, the Governor's Mansion at the Boettcher Mansion in Denver, and a travel allowance.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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