GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Pará Senate Election: 2nd Place

Name: Pará Senate Election: 2nd Place
End: 2026-10-04T06:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$23.82K

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Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Pará Senate Election: 2nd Place

Vol

$23.82K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $23.82K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $23.82K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will Delegado Éder Mauro win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Delegado Éder Mauro win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?	Poly	45%
Will Celso Sabino win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?	Poly	28%
Will Zequinha Marinho win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?	Poly	26%
Will Helder win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?	Poly	6%
Will Fernanda Lopes win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?	Poly	3%
Will Chicão win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?	Poly	3%
Will Edlaine Rodrigues win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?	Poly	2%
Will Conti win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?	Poly	1%
Will Gizelle Freitas win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?	Poly	1%
Will Willem da Silva win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?	Poly	0%
Will Breno Guimarães win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

45%

Top Probability

$23.82K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate t

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Pará Senate Election: 2nd Place
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 4, 2026 (29 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate t

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $23.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $73.8K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.32)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Breno Guimarães win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $240
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Celso Sabino win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $480
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Chicão win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $235
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Conti win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $272
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Delegado Éder Mauro win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $13.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 44.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Edlaine Rodrigues win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $551
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Fernanda Lopes win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $208
  DATA: [Yes: 2.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.4% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Gizelle Freitas win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $261
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Helder win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Willem da Silva win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $211
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Zequinha Marinho win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $6.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics