Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Dems' best tossup Senate race?

Name: Dems' best tossup Senate race?
End: 2026-11-03T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$9.18K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Dems' best tossup Senate race?

Vol

$9.18K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $9.18K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $9.18K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will the Michigan Democrat perform best among these tossup Senate races?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Michigan Democrat perform best among these tossup Senate races?	Poly	36%
Will the Maine Democrat perform best among these tossup Senate races?	Poly	22%
Will the Texas Democrat perform best among these tossup Senate races?	Poly	20%
Will the Alaska Democrat perform best among these tossup Senate races?	Poly	12%
Will the Ohio Democrat perform best among these tossup Senate races?	Poly	10%
Will the Iowa Democrat perform best among these tossup Senate races?	Poly	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

36%

Top Probability

$9.18K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election. Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the rel

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Dems' best tossup Senate race?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 3, 2026 (23 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election. 

Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the rel

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election. 

Vote share percentages will be determined by div"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $9.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $48.1K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.19)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Alaska Democrat perform best among these tossup Senate races?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $588
  DATA: [Yes: 11.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.4% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Ohio Democrat perform best among these tossup Senate races?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $504
  DATA: [Yes: 10.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Michigan Democrat perform best among these tossup Senate races?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $4.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 35.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Texas Democrat perform best among these tossup Senate races?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Iowa Democrat perform best among these tossup Senate races?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $314
  DATA: [Yes: 3.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.1% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the Maine Democrat perform best among these tossup Senate races?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics