GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Providence, RI Democratic Mayoral Nominee

Name: Providence, RI Democratic Mayoral Nominee
End: 2026-09-09T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$45.22K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Providence, RI Democratic Mayoral Nominee

Vol

$45.22K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $45.22K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $45.22K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Will David Morales be the Democratic nominee for Mayor of Providence?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will David Morales be the Democratic nominee for Mayor of Providence?	Poly	92%
Will Brett Smiley be the Democratic nominee for Mayor of Providence?	Poly	8%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

92%

Top Probability

$45.22K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the Providence, Rhode Island Mayoral election. The Democratic primary will take place on September 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will n

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Providence, RI Democratic Mayoral Nominee
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 9, 2026 (4 days left)
**Time Pressure:** High

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the Providence, Rhode Island Mayoral election. The Democratic primary will take place on September 9, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will n

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the Providence, Rhode Island Mayoral election. The Democratic primary will take place on September 9, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will r"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $45.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $44.7K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.01)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will David Morales be the Democratic nominee for Mayor of Providence?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 9, 2026): Vol $28.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 92.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Brett Smiley be the Democratic nominee for Mayor of Providence?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 9, 2026): Vol $16.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics