Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 2?
Total Volume
$11.13K
Events
1
Markets
9
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 2?
Vol
$11.13K
|
Events
1
|
Markets
9
$11.13K
1
9
$11.13K
1
9
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ. To
Prediction markets currently give roughly a 2 in 5 chance that the high temperature in Buenos Aires on March 1 will reach 32°C. This is essentially a coin flip, showing traders are very uncertain. The market is split between several close temperature ranges, with no single outcome holding a strong majority. This indicates the collective forecast is for a warm late-summer day, but one that could easily fall a degree or two above or below that 32°C mark.
March 1 falls at the very end of summer in Buenos Aires. Historical weather data shows average highs for early March are typically around 28°C, but temperatures frequently swing into the low 30s. The leading bet on 32°C reflects this common summer heat.
Two main factors are creating the uncertainty. First, local weather forecasts for that specific day are not yet available, so traders are relying on seasonal patterns rather than specific meteorological models. Second, Buenos Aires weather can be changeable due to its location near the Rio de la Plata, where sudden shifts can bring cooler air or trap heat. The market odds capture this inherent variability for a date still weeks away.
The main event is simply the day itself, March 1, 2026. The market will resolve once the official high temperature is recorded at the Minister Pistarini International Airport weather station.
The only thing that could shift predictions before then is the release of reliable short-term weather forecasts. As March 1 approaches within a 10-day forecast window, professional meteorological models will begin to provide guidance. If multiple models consistently predict a heat spike or a cool front, the market probabilities would likely move significantly in response.
For short-term weather outcomes, prediction markets have a mixed record. They are excellent at aggregating known public data, like historical climate averages. However, they cannot outperform advanced weather forecasting models once those models are active. This market is currently forecasting based on climate, not weather. Its accuracy will depend entirely on whether traders can correctly interpret and react to the professional forecasts that will emerge in late February. For now, the near 50/50 odds on 32°C honestly reflect how difficult it is to pinpoint a single daily high so far in advance.
The market is pricing a 42% probability that the highest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 1 will be 32°C. This indicates the market sees this outcome as the single most likely scenario, but still views it as less probable than all other temperature outcomes combined. The next closest contracts, for 31°C and 33°C, are trading at 24% and 19% respectively. With a total volume of just $56,000 spread thinly across nine temperature bins, the market lacks deep liquidity, making the current odds more sensitive to small trades and potentially less reliable as a consensus forecast.
The pricing reflects a typical late-summer forecast for Buenos Aires. March 1 falls at the end of the Southern Hemisphere summer, when daily highs commonly range from the high 20s to low 30s Celsius. Historical climate data for the city shows the average high for early March is around 28-29°C, but variability is standard. The concentration of probability around 32°C suggests weather models or recent trends are pointing toward a warmer-than-average day. The wide spread of probability across the 30-34°C range, however, shows traders acknowledge significant uncertainty inherent in a specific daily forecast several days out.
The resolution source is a finalized weather station reading, so the odds will shift with each new short-term forecast. The most immediate catalyst is the issuance of updated meteorological reports from services like Argentina's National Meteorological Service (SMN) or global models. A forecast update showing a strengthening cool front or increased cloud cover could rapidly shift probability toward the lower 20s°C contracts. Conversely, a model shift predicting a stronger influx of warm, northerly winds would boost contracts for 33°C or 34°C. Given the low liquidity, even a single sizable bet based on a new forecast could move the quoted odds by 10 percentage points or more in a short time.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on forecasting the maximum temperature that will be recorded at Buenos Aires's primary international airport on March 1, 2026. The market resolves based on data from the Wunderground weather service, specifically the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini International Airport Station (airport code SAEZ) in Ezeiza, Buenos Aires Province. March 1 falls during the late summer period in the Southern Hemisphere, a time when Buenos Aires typically experiences warm to hot conditions, though significant variability exists from year to year. The market allows participants to speculate on whether the day will be unseasonably cool, average, or exceptionally hot, with outcomes tied to precise temperature ranges. Interest in this specific forecast stems from several factors. Meteorologically, early March represents a transitional period where the peak summer heat of January and February can persist or begin to wane. Accurate temperature predictions have practical implications for agriculture, energy demand for cooling, and public health, particularly regarding heatwaves. For prediction market participants, it represents a test of probabilistic forecasting against both short-term weather models and longer-term climatic trends. The use of a single, authoritative observation station (Minister Pistarini) ensures a clear and unambiguous resolution source. The market's structure requires participants to analyze historical temperature data for the location, understand typical atmospheric patterns for early March, and consider any potential influence from broader climate phenomena like El Niño or La Niña. The outcome is a single, objective data point, making it a straightforward event for market resolution. This type of market appeals to those interested in climatology, quantitative forecasting, and the growing field of using collective intelligence to predict environmental variables.
Buenos Aires has a humid subtropical climate characterized by hot, humid summers and mild winters. Historical data from the SMN shows that March temperatures typically begin a gradual decline from the peak summer highs of January. The official meteorological record for the city, which has been kept since 1906 at various observatories, provides a long-term baseline for understanding temperature variability. The Minister Pistarini International Airport station, located in Ezeiza about 22 kilometers southwest of central Buenos Aires, has been a primary observation site for decades, with its data incorporated into global climate datasets. Notable historical events provide context for extreme possibilities. The highest temperature ever recorded in Buenos Aires was 43.3°C (109.9°F) on January 29, 1957, at the Villa Ortúzar observatory. More recently, a significant heatwave affected the region in early March 2022, with temperatures exceeding 35°C (95°F) on multiple days. Conversely, late-summer cold fronts can bring unseasonably cool weather; on March 1, 2013, the maximum temperature at Ezeiza was a relatively cool 24.5°C (76.1°F). These precedents illustrate the wide potential range for the March 1 temperature. The historical record also shows a warming trend. A 2022 SMN report indicated that the average temperature in the Buenos Aires region has increased by approximately 0.5°C per decade since the 1960s, which may influence the probability of higher temperature extremes.
The specific temperature on a given day may seem trivial, but its accurate prediction has tangible economic and social costs. For Argentina's agricultural sector, which is a pillar of the national economy, an unexpected late-summer heatwave can stress crops nearing harvest, potentially reducing yields. Energy providers use temperature forecasts to manage the electrical grid; an underpredicted hot day can strain capacity and increase the risk of blackouts, while an overprediction leads to wasteful expenditure on standby generation. On a broader scale, markets like this contribute to the study of collective forecasting accuracy for climate variables. As societies seek to understand and adapt to climate change, the ability to predict not just long-term trends but also specific weather outcomes becomes more valuable. These prediction markets can serve as a benchmark for traditional forecasting models. Furthermore, the data point itself adds to the climatic record for Buenos Aires, helping scientists refine their understanding of local weather patterns and variability in a changing climate.
As of early 2025, meteorological agencies are monitoring the state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean. The phase of ENSO (El Niño, La Niña, or neutral) during the 2025-2026 Southern Hemisphere summer will be a primary factor influencing temperature and precipitation patterns in Argentina. Long-range seasonal outlooks for the summer of 2026 have not yet been issued. Current weather models are incapable of providing a specific forecast for a single day over a year in advance. Therefore, market participants must rely on climatological probabilities, analysis of historical analogs, and monitoring of developing large-scale climate patterns over the coming year to inform their predictions.
According to data from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, the highest temperature recorded on March 1 at the Minister Pistarini International Airport station in recent decades was 35.2°C (95.4°F). This occurred in the year 2022. The lowest maximum temperature on that date in the same period was 20.1°C (68.2°F).
The Minister Pistarini station is used because it is a primary synoptic station that adheres to strict World Meteorological Organization standards for instrument siting, away from urban heat influences. This ensures consistent, comparable measurements over time. The market rules specify this station to guarantee an unambiguous data source.
Forecast skill decreases rapidly beyond about 10 days. A specific temperature forecast for a date one year in advance has no reliable skill from numerical weather models. Therefore, predictions are based on climatology, the statistical distribution of past temperatures for that date, and anticipated large-scale climate patterns like El Niño.
In Buenos Aires during summer, the maximum temperature typically occurs in the mid-to-late afternoon, between 3:00 PM and 5:00 PM local time. The official daily maximum is the highest single reading recorded within the 24-hour period ending at midnight.
During El Niño events, the region encompassing Buenos Aires often experiences warmer and wetter than average summer conditions. This increases the probability of heatwaves and higher maximum temperatures. The opposite pattern, cooler conditions, is sometimes associated with La Niña events.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
9 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
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| Poly | 34% |
| Poly | 28% |
| Poly | 21% |
| Poly | 11% |
| Poly | 9% |
| Poly | 2% |
| Poly | 1% |
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| Poly | 0% |
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