US downs another Iranian drone by February 28? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

US downs another Iranian drone by February 28?

Name: US downs another Iranian drone by February 28?
End: 2026-02-28T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$96.07K

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Markets

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US downs another Iranian drone by February 28?

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Polymarket

markets · $96.07K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $96.07K

100%

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1 market tracked

US downs another Iranian drone by February 28?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
US downs another Iranian drone by February 28?	Poly	97%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

97%

Top Probability

$96.07K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US military downs any Iranian military drone by any means (including kinetic, jammer, etc.) by February 28, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any drone whose operation is broadly attributed to Iran by a consensus of credible reporting will be considered an “Iranian drone”, regardless of whether it can be definitively confirmed that the drone was operated by the Iranian government or military. Drones whose operation attributed to individu

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, March 1, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US downs another Iranian drone by February 28?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Feb 28, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US military downs any Iranian military drone by any means (including kinetic, jammer, etc.) by February 28, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Any drone whose operation is broadly attributed to Iran by a consensus of credible reporting will be considered an “Iranian drone”, regardless of whether it can be definitively confirmed that the drone was operated by the Iranian government or military. Drones whose operation attributed to individu

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US military downs any Iranian military drone by any means (including kinetic, jammer, etc.) by February 28, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Any drone whose operation is broadly attributed to Iran by a consensus of credible reporting will b"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $96.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.7K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 35.84)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. US downs another Iranian drone by February 28?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 28, 2026): Vol $96.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 97.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.9% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

97¢

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US downs another Iranian drone by February 28?

US downs another Iranian drone by February 28?

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US downs another Iranian drone by February 28?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)