Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

What will Claude Sonnet's output token price hit in 2026?

Name: What will Claude Sonnet's output token price hit in 2026?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$5.32K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

What will Claude Sonnet's output token price hit in 2026?

Vol

$5.32K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $5.32K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $5.32K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Will Claude Sonnet's output price be at or below $8 in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Claude Sonnet's output price be at or below $8 in 2026?	Poly	28%
Will Claude Sonnet's output price be at or above $15 in 2026?	Poly	8%
Will Claude Sonnet's output price be at or above $20 in 2026?	Poly	4%
Will Claude Sonnet's output price be at or below $5 in 2026?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

28%

Top Probability

$5.32K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the standard output token price of Anthropic's latest Claude Sonnet model is equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the price specified in the title, in USD per million tokens, at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Anthropic's latest Claude Sonnet model means the model with the highest version number among models by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet,

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** What will Claude Sonnet's output token price hit in 2026?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2027 (82 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the standard output token price of Anthropic's latest Claude Sonnet model is equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the price specified in the title, in USD per million tokens, at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Anthropic's latest Claude Sonnet model means the model with the highest version number among models by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet,

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the standard output token price of Anthropic's latest Claude Sonnet model is equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the price specified in the title, in USD per million tokens, at any point between market creation and December 31, 20"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $964
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 5.51)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Claude Sonnet's output price be at or above $20 in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.4% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Claude Sonnet's output price be at or above $15 in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Claude Sonnet's output price be at or below $8 in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 28.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Claude Sonnet's output price be at or below $5 in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $587
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETTech