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Will Claude Sonnet's output price be at or below $5 in 2026?

Yes1%

Vol$587.08

Outcomes2

1%

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MarketPOLYMARKETactive

Will Claude Sonnet's output price be at or below $5 in 2026?

MarketPOLYMARKETactiveOther

Will Claude Sonnet's output price be at or below $5 in 2026?

Part of: What will Claude Sonnet's output token price hit in 2026?

NoNo Price

99¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$587.08

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Jan 1, 2027

in 3 months

Trade on Polymarket

Will Claude Sonnet's output price be at or below $5 in 2026?

Will Claude Sonnet's output price be at or below $5 in 2026?

No

99¢

|

Vol

$587.08

|

Outcomes

2

Yes0.5¢

No99.5¢

Price History

Will Claude Sonnet's output price be at or below $5 in 2026?

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

81 Days Left

January 01, 2027 • 4:59 AM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

What will Claude Sonnet's output token price hit in 2026?

What will Claude Sonnet's output token price hit in 2026?

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

January 01, 2027

4:59 AM GMT+0

UMA Protocol

Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.

Accuracy

99.7%

Resolved

15,420

Avg Time

< 2 hours

Disputes

0.3%

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the standard output token price of Anthropic's latest Claude Sonnet model is equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the price specified in the title, in USD per million tokens, at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Anthropic's latest Claude Sonnet model means the model with the highest version number among models by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet, such as Claude Sonnet 4.6 or Claude Sonnet 5, that have a standard output token price listed on Anthropic's official API pricing page. If more than one such model shares the highest version number, the most recently released of them applies. Only models that are publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups, will be considered; models available only through a closed beta or any form of private or limited access will not qualify. The relevant price is the “Base tokens” output price on Anthropic’s official API pricing page for default global inference, at the rate applicable to requests that do not trigger a long-context surcharge. Prices for batch, fast mode, cached, or US-only inference and other data-residency variants will not be considered. Any promotional, temporary, or volume-discount pricing will not be used for resolution; only the standard listed API price applies. A price qualifies only while the model is Anthropic's latest Claude Sonnet model as defined above, after market creation. The resolution source for this market will be Anthropic's official API pricing page (https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing). Official announcements and archived copies of this page may be used to confirm prices and when they were displayed; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market Still Active

This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.